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Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-05-26 Evgeny Levi , Radu V. Craiu

As Gaussian processes are used to answer increasingly complex questions, analytic solutions become scarcer and scarcer. Monte Carlo methods act as a convenient bridge for connecting intractable mathematical expressions with actionable…

The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…

概率论 · 数学 2021-05-21 Aleksandr Shchegolev

Consider a Markov process \omega_t at equilibrium and some event C (a subset of the state-space of the process). A natural measure of correlations in the process is the pairwise correlation \Pr[\omega_0,\omega_t \in C] - \Pr[\omega_0 \in…

概率论 · 数学 2012-08-24 Alan Hammond , Elchanan Mossel , Gábor Pete

We consider graphical models based on a recursive system of linear structural equations. This implies that there is an ordering, $\sigma$, of the variables such that each observed variable $Y_v$ is a linear function of a variable specific…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-28 Y. Samuel Wang , Mathias Drton

The notion of a successful coupling of Markov processes, based on the idea that both components of the coupled system ``intersect'' in finite time with probability one, is extended to cover situations when the coupling is unnecessarily…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Michael Blank , Sergey Pirogov

We consider multivariate copula-based stationary time-series under Gaussian subordination. Observed time series are subordinated to long-range dependent Gaussian processes and characterized by arbitrary marginal copula distributions. First…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-03-16 Yusufu Simayi

Non-Markovian dynamics are ubiquitous across physics, biology, and engineering. Yet our understanding of non-Markovian processes significantly lags that of simpler Markovian processes, due largely to a lack of tractable models. In this…

统计力学 · 物理学 2025-12-23 Matthew P. Leighton , Christopher W. Lynn

We investigate dynamics of Gaussian states of continuous variable systems under Gaussianity preserving channels. We introduce a hierarchy of such evolutions encompassing Markovian, weakly and strongly non-Markovian processes, and provide…

We consider a class of stochastic dynamical systems, called piecewise deterministic Markov processes, with states $(x, \s)\in \O\times \G$, $\O$ being a region in $\bbR^d$ or the $d$--dimensional torus, $\G$ being a finite set. The…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-02-25 Alessandra Faggionato , Davide Gabrielli , Marco Ribezzi Crivellari

Data-based inference of directed interactions in complex dynamical systems is a problem common to many disciplines of science. In this work, we study networks of spatially separate dynamical entities, which could represent physical systems…

统计力学 · 物理学 2024-03-15 Tim Hempel , Sarah A. M. Loos

Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Carrie J. Lei-Cramer , Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

Incorporating atomistic and molecular information into models of cellular behaviour is challenging because of a vast separation of spatial and temporal scales between processes happening at the atomic and cellular levels. Multiscale or…

计算物理 · 物理学 2019-08-28 Radek Erban

We consider continuous-time consensus systems whose interactions satisfy a form or reciprocity that is not instantaneous, but happens over time. We show that these systems have certain desirable properties: They always converge…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2015-10-20 Samuel Martin , Julien M. Hendrickx

Facilitated or kinetically constrained spin models (KCSM) are a class of interacting particle systems reversible w.r.t. to a simple product measure. Each dynamical variable (spin) is re-sampled from its equilibrium distribution only if the…

Gaussian Process (GP) models are a powerful tool in probabilistic machine learning with a solid theoretical foundation. Thanks to current advances, modeling complex data with GPs is becoming increasingly feasible, which makes them an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-04 Sarem Seitz

Classical distribution testing assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the distribution that is being tested. We initiate the study of Markov chain testing, assuming access to a single trajectory of a Markov Chain. In particular, we observe a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-12-05 Constantinos Daskalakis , Nishanth Dikkala , Nick Gravin

We consider random processes that are history-dependent, in the sense that the distribution of the next step of the process at any time depends upon the entire past history of the process. In general, therefore, the Markov property cannot…

概率论 · 数学 2019-11-19 Peter Clifford , David Stirzaker

Continuous-time trajectory estimation is an attractive alternative to discrete-time batch estimation due to the ability to incorporate high-frequency measurements from asynchronous sensors while keeping the number of optimization parameters…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2024-02-02 Jacob Johnson , Joshua Mangelson , Timothy Barfoot , Randal Beard

In this paper we propose an identification procedure of a sparse graphical model associated to a Gaussian stationary stochastic process. The identification paradigm exploits the approximation of autoregressive processes through reciprocal…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2018-06-13 Daniele Alpago , Mattia Zorzi , Augusto Ferrante
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