相关论文: Rare Event Simulation for non-Markovian repairable…

Fault Tree analysis is a widely used failure analysis methodology to assess a system in terms of safety or reliability in many industrial application domains. However, with Fault Tree methodology there is no possibility to express a…

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a well-established method in failure analysis and is widely used in safety and reliability assessments. While FTA tools enable users to manage complex analyses effectively, they can sometimes obscure the…

Complexity has gained recent attention in machine learning for its ability to extract synthetic information from large datasets. Complex dynamical systems are characterized by temporal complexity associated with intermittent birth-death…

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has shown its strength for a lot of deterministic and stochastic examples, but literature lacks reports of applications to real world industrial processes. Common reasons for this are that there is no…

In this paper we use splitting technique to estimate the probability of hitting a rare but critical set by the continuous component of a switching diffusion. Instead of following classical approach we use Wonham filter to achieve multiple…

Safe reinforcement learning has many variants and it is still an open research problem. Here, we focus on how to use action guidance by means of a non-expert demonstrator to avoid catastrophic events in a domain with sparse, delayed, and…

In this study, we propose a method Distributionally Robust Safe Screening (DRSS), for identifying unnecessary samples and features within a DR covariate shift setting. This method effectively combines DR learning, a paradigm aimed at…

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distribution, and Monte Carlo sampling…

Finding and sampling rare trajectories in dynamical systems is a difficult computational task underlying numerous problems and applications. In this paper we show how to construct Metropolis- Hastings Monte Carlo methods that can…

We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…

Evaluating the performance of autonomous vehicles (AV) and their complex subsystems to high precision under naturalistic circumstances remains a challenge, especially when failure or dangerous cases are rare. Rarity does not only require an…

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and…

Rare events are processes that occur upon the emergence of unlikely fluctuations. Unlike what their name suggests, rare events are fairly ubiquitous in nature, as the occurrence of many structural transformations in biology and material…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation at high confidence levels is inherently a rare-event problem and is particularly sensitive to tail behavior and model misspecification. This paper studies the performance of two simulation-based VaR estimation…

One of the important tasks of the Reliability Estimation is Analysis of the Fault Tree. A problem of Fault Trees analysis is considered one of the most complex ones, since structure of such trees is characterized by a considerable number of…

Knowing the features of a complex system that are highly relevant to a particular target variable is of fundamental interest in many areas of science. Existing approaches are often limited to linear settings, sometimes lack guarantees, and…

In multi-agent safety-critical scenarios, traditional autonomous driving frameworks face significant challenges in balancing safety constraints and task performance. These frameworks struggle to quantify dynamic interaction risks in…

The performance of coverage-based fault localization greatly depends on the quality of test cases being executed. These test cases execute some lines of the given program and determine whether the underlying tests are passed or failed. In…

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…