相关论文: Accelerating Bayesian inference in hydrological mo…

Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run the simulator.…

Current modeling approaches for hydrological modeling often rely on either physics-based or data-science methods, including Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. While physics-based models tend to rigid structure resulting in unrealistic…

In the quest for advanced propulsion and power-generation systems, high-fidelity simulations are too computationally expensive to survey the desired design space, and a new design methodology is needed that combines engineering physics,…

Statistical models often include thousands of parameters. However, large models decrease the investigator's ability to interpret and communicate the estimated parameters. Reducing the dimensionality of the parameter space in the estimation…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

We develop a novel data-driven approach to the inverse problem of classical statistical mechanics: given experimental data on the collective motion of a classical many-body system, how does one characterise the free energy landscape of that…

The astounding success of these methods has made it imperative to obtain more explainable and trustworthy estimates from these models. In hydrology, basin characteristics can be noisy or missing, impacting streamflow prediction. For solving…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Inference for doubly intractable distributions is challenging because the intractable normalizing functions of these models include parameters of interest. Previous auxiliary variable MCMC algorithms are infeasible for multi-dimensional…

Water balance models (WBMs) are often employed to understand regional hydrologic cycles over various time scales. Most WBMs, however, are physically-based, and few employ state-of-the-art statistical methods to reconcile independent input…

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

Fitting a simplifying model with several parameters to real data of complex objects is a highly nontrivial task, but enables the possibility to get insights into the objects physics. Here, we present a method to infer the parameters of the…

Numerical modeling of the intensity and evolution of flood events are affected by multiple sources of uncertainty such as precipitation and land surface conditions. To quantify and curb these uncertainties, an ensemble-based simulation and…

Scientific modeling and engineering applications rely heavily on parameter estimation methods to fit physical models and calibrate numerical simulations using real-world measurements. In the absence of analytic statistical models with…

Process-based hydrologic models are invaluable tools for understanding the terrestrial water cycle and addressing modern water resources problems. However, many hydrologic models are computationally expensive and, depending on the…

Using Bayesian experimental design techniques, we have shown that for a single two-level quantum mechanical system under strong (projective) measurement, the dynamical parameters of a model Hamiltonian can be estimated with exponentially…

The Wasserstein distance received a lot of attention recently in the community of machine learning, especially for its principled way of comparing distributions. It has found numerous applications in several hard problems, such as domain…