相关论文: Accelerating Bayesian inference in hydrological mo…

Computationally expensive simulators, implementing mathematical models in computer codes, are commonly approximated using statistical emulators. We develop and assess novel emulation methods for systems best modelled via a chain, series or…

Current hydrological modeling methods combine data-driven Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and traditional physics-based models to address their respective limitations incorrect parameter estimates from rigid physics-based models and the…

Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…

In applied sciences, we often deal with deterministic simulation models that are too slow for simulation-intensive tasks such as calibration or real-time control. In this paper, an emulator for a generic dynamic model, given by a system of…

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the…

A Bayesian design is given by maximising an expected utility over a design space. The utility is chosen to represent the aim of the experiment and its expectation is taken with respect to all unknowns: responses, parameters and/or models.…

Deterministic hydrological models with uncertain, but inferred-to-be-time-invariant parameters typically show time-dependent model structural errors. Such errors can occur if a hydrological process is active in certain time periods in…

Accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities like runoff or water level are beneficial to various areas of society. Probabilistic state-of-the-art hydrological ensemble prediction models are usually driven with…

The complex and computationally expensive nature of landscape evolution models pose significant challenges in the inference and optimisation of unknown parameters. Bayesian inference provides a methodology for estimation and uncertainty…

Data assimilation plays a crucial role in numerical modeling, enabling the integration of real-world observations into mathematical models to enhance the accuracy and predictive capabilities of simulations. This approach is widely applied…

Scalable surrogate models enable efficient emulation of computer models (or simulators), particularly when dealing with large ensembles of runs. While Gaussian process (GP) models are commonly employed for emulation, they face limitations…

Predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling is quantified by using post-processing or Bayesian-based methods. The former methods are not straightforward and the latter ones are not distribution-free (i.e. assumptions on the probability…

In robotics, simulation has the potential to reduce design time and costs, and lead to a more robust engineered solution and a safer development process. However, the use of simulators is predicated on the availability of good models. This…

Computer models are widely used to study complex real world physical systems. However, there are major limitations to their direct use including: their complex structure; large numbers of inputs and outputs; and long evaluation times.…

Numerical modeling of morphodynamics presents significant challenges in engineering due to uncertainties arising from inaccurate inputs, model errors, and limited computing resources. Accurate results are essential for optimizing strategies…

We present a common framework for Bayesian emulation methodologies for multivariate-output simulators, or computer models, that employ either parametric linear models or nonparametric Gaussian processes. Novel diagnostics suitable for…

Bayesian inverse modeling is important for a better understanding of hydrological processes. However, this approach can be computationally demanding, as it usually requires a large number of model evaluations. To address this issue, one can…

A central challenge in many areas of science and engineering is to identify model parameters that are consistent with prior knowledge and empirical data. Bayesian inference offers a principled framework for this task, but can be…

Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an…