相关论文: Jet Latitude Regimes and the Predictability of the…

Studies conducted by the UK Met Office reported significant skill at predicting the winter NAO index with their seasonal prediction system. At the same time, a very low signal-to-noise ratio was observed, as measured using the `ratio of…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…

This letter raises the possibility that ergodicity concerns might have some bearing on the signal-to-noise paradox. This is explored by applying the ergodic theorem to the theory behind ensemble weather forecasting and the ensemble mean.…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…

Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a leading mode of atmospheric variability, affecting the North Atlantic Ocean on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. The NAO changes the atmospheric forcing at the ocean's surface, including…

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple…

Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric…

Ensemble forecasts can exhibit counterintuitive statistical properties such that the correlation between ensemble means and observations ($r_{mo}$) exceeds the correlation between ensemble means and individual members ($r_{mm}$). This…

Atmospheric transient eddies and low-frequency flow contribution to the ocean surface wave climate in the North Atlantic during boreal winter is investigated (1980 - 2016). We conduct a set of numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art…

This study investigates the variability of the Central England Temperature (CET) series in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) using advanced time series modeling techniques. Leveraging…

Large-scale turbulent structures in the form of coherent wavepackets play a significant role in the generation of prominent shallow angle noise radiation of jets. Economical prediction tools often model these wavepackets in the…

Euro-Atlantic regimes are typically identified using either the latitude of the eddy-driven jet, or clustering algorithms in the phase space of 500hPa geopotential height (Z500). However, while robust trimodality is visibly apparent in jet…

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record…

Data-driven weather prediction models implicitly assume that the statistical relationship between predictors and targets is stationary. Under anthropogenic climate change, this assumption is violated, yet the structure of the resulting…

Machine learning weather models trained on observed atmospheric conditions can outperform conventional physics-based models at short- to medium-range (1-14 day) forecast timescales. Here we take the machine learning weather model ACE2,…

We investigate the lifetime of dynamical regimes under the impact of noise motivated by low-dimensional models of the atmosphere. One may expect that the inclusion of noise tends to make the system leave prescribed regions of the state…

We construct a network from climate records of different geographical sites in the North Atlantic. A link between two sites represents the cross-correlations between the records of each site. We find that within the different phases of the…

A hybrid approach to numerical weather prediction is investigated, in which the unperturbed physics-based ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) is spectrally nudged toward forecasts from a machine-learned weather forecast model, trained…