相关论文: A Theory of Uncertainty Variables for State Estima…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Several different uncertain inference systems (UISs) have been developed for representing uncertainty in rule-based expert systems. Some of these, such as Mycin's Certainty Factors, Prospector, and Bayes' Networks were designed as…

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to…

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…

Bayesian networks provide a powerful tool for reasoning about probabilistic causation, used in many areas of science. They are, however, intrinsically classical. In particular, Bayesian networks naturally yield the Bell inequalities.…

Bell inequalities may only be derived, if hidden variables do not depend on the experimental settings. The stochastic independence of hidden and setting variables is called: freedom of choice, free will, measurement independence or no…

The causal (belief) network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independencies in a joint probability distribution. The exact methods and the approximation methods, which perform probabilistic inference in causal networks,…

We present a Bayesian perspective on quantifying the uncertainty of graph signals estimated or reconstructed from imperfect observations. We show that many conventional methods of graph signal estimation, reconstruction and imputation, can…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

Valuation networks have been proposed as graphical representations of valuation-based systems (VBSs). The VBS framework is able to capture many uncertainty calculi including probability theory, Dempster-Shafer's belief-function theory,…

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the…

In communications, unknown variables are usually modelled as random variables, and concepts such as independence, entropy and information are defined in terms of the underlying probability distributions. In contrast, control theory often…

Maximum entropy principle identifies forces conjugated to observables and the thermodynamic relations between them, independent upon their underlying mechanistic details. For data about state distributions or transition statistics, the…

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

We propose and axiomatize preferences on a product state space in light of uncertainty regarding the dependency of different payoff-relevant factors. Dependence structures allow to decompose probabilities and allow to pin down behavior…

An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully…

We develop simple methods for constructing likelihoods and parameter priors for learning about the parameters and structure of a Bayesian network. In particular, we introduce several assumptions that permit the construction of likelihoods…