相关论文: A hypothesis-testing perspective on the G-normal d…

The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

In 2017-2020 Jordanova and co-authors investigate probabilities for p-outside values and determine them in many particular cases. They show that these probabilities are closely related to the concept for heavy tails. Tukey's boxplots are…

We theoretically analyze the problem of testing for $p$-hacking based on distributions of $p$-values across multiple studies. We provide general results for when such distributions have testable restrictions (are non-increasing) under the…

A long-standing problem in the foundations of quantum mechanics is to identify a physical principle that explains why algebraically maximal violations of Bell inequalities can generally not be achieved in Nature. One recently proposed…

Bell's theorem shows that no hidden-variable model can explain the measurement statistics of a quantum system shared between two parties, thus ruling out a classical (local) understanding of nature. In this work we demonstrate that by…

We present a novel approach to anomaly detection by integrating Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) processes into kernel-based methods. The GH distribution, known for its flexibility in modeling skewness, heavy tails, and kurtosis, helps to…

If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

We investigate the problem of jointly testing two hypotheses and estimating a random parameter based on data that is observed sequentially by sensors in a distributed network. In particular, we assume the data to be drawn from a Gaussian…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

In this talk I first review at an elementary level a selection of central limit theorems, including some lesser known cases, for sums and maxima of uncorrelated and correlated random variables. I recall why several of them appear in…

In order to characterize the fluctuation between the ergodic limit and the time-averaging estimator of a full discretization in a quantitative way, we establish a central limit theorem for the full discretization of the parabolic stochastic…

The complexity underlying real-world systems implies that standard statistical hypothesis testing methods may not be adequate for these peculiar applications. Specifically, we show that the likelihood-ratio test's null-distribution needs to…

In distributed hypothesis testing, a central server performs hypothesis testing based on information received from distributed sensors/clients. We study a secure variant of this problem in which the central server determines the hypothesis…

We propose a new powerful family of tests of univariate normality. These tests are based on an initial value problem in the space of characteristic functions originating from the fixed point property of the normal distribution in the zero…

Based on recent results in extreme value theory, we use a new technique for the statistical estimation of distribution tails. Specifically, we use the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem, which gives a natural limit law for…

We prove the central limit theorem (CLT) for a sequence of independent zero-mean random variables $\xi_j$, perturbed by predictable multiplicative factors $\lambda_j$ with values in intervals $[\underline\lambda_j,\overline\lambda_j]$. It…

In this paper, we solve the existence problem of optimal stopping problem under some kind of nonlinear expectation named g_\Gamma expectation which was recently introduced in Peng, S.G. and Xu, M.Y. [8]. Our method based on our preceding…

We prove upper bounds on the transition probabilities of random walks with i.i.d. random conductances with a polynomial lower tail near $0$. We consider both constant and variable speed models. Our estimates are sharp. As a consequence, we…