相关论文: Bayesian approach to Lorenz curve using time serie…

Multi-sensor state space models underpin fusion applications in networks of sensors. Estimation of latent parameters in these models has the potential to provide highly desirable capabilities such as network self-calibration. Conventional…

This paper develops a simple two-stage variational Bayesian algorithm to estimate panel spatial autoregressive models, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods without restricting the…

Laplacian-P-splines (LPS) associate the P-splines smoother and the Laplace approximation in a unifying framework for fast and flexible inference under the Bayesian paradigm. Gaussian Markov field priors imposed on penalized latent variables…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

When inferring unknown parameters or comparing different models, data must be compared to underlying theory. Even if a model has no closed-form solution to derive summary statistics, it is often still possible to simulate mock data in order…

This paper develops a class of Bayesian non- and semiparametric methods for estimating regression curves and surfaces. The main idea is to model the regression as locally linear, and then place suitable local priors on the local parameters.…

Time serie classification is used in a diverse range of domain such as meteorology, medicine and physics. It aims to classify chronological data. Many accurate approaches have been built during the last decade and shapelet transformation is…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…

We present a probabilistic model for unsupervised alignment of high-dimensional time-warped sequences based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM). We follow the approach introduced in (Kazlauskaite, 2018) of simultaneously…

Statistical agencies and other institutions collect data under the promise to protect the confidentiality of respondents. When releasing microdata samples, the risk that records can be identified must be assessed. To this aim, a widely…

We propose models and algorithms for learning about random directions in simplex-valued data. The models are applied to the study of income level proportions and their changes over time in a geostatistical area. There are several notable…

To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences…

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

The Whittle likelihood is widely used for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the spectral density of stationary time series. However, the loss of efficiency for non-Gaussian time series can be substantial. On the other hand, parametric…

In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. By utilizing the Dirichlet process, we model the unknown distribution of the underlying stochastic process…

This paper considers a semiparametric approach within the general Bayesian linear model where the innovations consist of a stationary, mean zero Gaussian time series. While a parametric prior is specified for the linear model coefficients,…

In this paper we consider the problem of dynamic clustering, where cluster memberships may change over time and clusters may split and merge over time, thus creating new clusters and destroying existing ones. We propose a Bayesian…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model for mixed-type bounded data, where some variables are compositional and others are interval-bounded. Compositional variables are non-negative and sum to a given constant, such as the proportion of…

This paper proposes the asymmetric linear double autoregression, which jointly models the conditional mean and conditional heteroscedasticity characterized by asymmetric effects. A sufficient condition is established for the existence of a…