相关论文: Trend detection in GEV models

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Extreme environmental phenomena such as major precipitation events manifestly exhibit spatial dependence. Max-stable processes are a class of asymptotically-justified models that are capable of representing spatial dependence among extreme…

We determine forest lease value and optimal harvesting strategies under model parameter uncertainty within stochastic bio-economic models that account for catastrophe risk. Catastrophic events are modeled as a Poisson point process, with a…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

Quantile regression is a statistical method which, unlike classical regression, aims to predict the conditional quantiles. Classical quantile regression methods face difficulties, particularly when the quantile under consideration is…

Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical…

The maximum likelihood method offers a standard way to estimate the three parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Combined with the block maxima method, it is often used in practice to assess the extreme value index…

The block maxima approach, which consists of dividing a series of observations into equal sized blocks to extract the block maxima, is commonly used for identifying and modelling extreme events using the generalized extreme value (GEV)…

Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…

This paper introduces a novel sub-sampling block maxima technique to model and characterize environmental extreme risks. We examine the relationships between block size and block maxima statistics derived from the Gaussian and generalized…

A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a stochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system. Statistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences of the time…

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Many environmental processes such as rainfall, wind or snowfall are inherently spatial and the modelling of extremes has to take into account that feature. In addition, environmental processes are often attached with an angle, e.g., wind…

We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the…

The analysis of seasonal or annual block maxima is of interest in fields such as hydrology, climatology or meteorology. In connection with the celebrated method of block maxima, we study several tests that can be used to assess whether the…

Multivariate extreme value statistical analysis is concerned with observations on several variables which are thought to possess some degree of tail-dependence. In areas such as the modeling of financial and insurance risks, or as the…

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…

Extreme value (EV) statistics of correlated systems are widely investigated in many fields, spanning the spectrum from weather forecasting to earthquake prediction. Does the unavoidable discrete sampling of a continuous correlated…

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…