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We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

It is difficult to use subsampling with variational inference in hierarchical models since the number of local latent variables scales with the dataset. Thus, inference in hierarchical models remains a challenge at large scale. It is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-08 Abhinav Agrawal , Justin Domke

In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…

数值分析 · 数学 2015-07-22 Toni Sayah

We study Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of sample information (EVSI) which measures the expected benefit of gaining additional information for decision making under uncertainty. EVSI is defined as a nested expectation in which…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-10-05 Tomohiko Hironaka , Michael B. Giles , Takashi Goda , Howard Thom

A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-02-10 Heiko Strathmann , Dino Sejdinovic , Mark Girolami

For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-04-19 Cheng Zhang , Babak Shahbaba , Hongkai Zhao

Clustering is at the very core of machine learning, and its applications proliferate with the increasing availability of data. However, as datasets grow, comparing clusterings with an adjustment for chance becomes computationally difficult,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-01 Kai Klede , Leo Schwinn , Dario Zanca , Björn Eskofier

When dealing with difficult inverse problems such as inverse rendering, using Monte Carlo estimated gradients to optimise parameters can slow down convergence due to variance. Averaging many gradient samples in each iteration reduces this…

图形学 · 计算机科学 2023-09-28 Martin Balint , Karol Myszkowski , Hans-Peter Seidel , Gurprit Singh

Nested Monte Carlo is widely used for risk estimation, but its efficiency is limited by the discontinuity of the indicator function and high computational cost. This paper proposes a nested Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-04-06 Yu Xu , Xiaoqun Wang

This work describes methodologies to successfully implement the Implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) scheme for thermal radiative transfer in reduced-precision floating-point arithmetic. The methods used can be broadly categorized into scaling…

计算物理 · 物理学 2025-10-27 Simon Butson , Mathew Cleveland , Alex Long , Todd Palmer

Bayesian optimization provides sample-efficient global optimization for a broad range of applications, including automatic machine learning, engineering, physics, and experimental design. We introduce BoTorch, a modern programming framework…

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

Bayesian filtering aims at tracking sequentially a hidden process from an observed one. In particular, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques propagate in time weighted trajectories which represent the posterior probability density…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-10-22 Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries

Enumeration algorithms have been one of recent hot topics in theoretical computer science. Different from other problems, enumeration has many interesting aspects, such as the computation time can be shorter than the total output size, by…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2014-07-16 Takeaki Uno

Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-03-02 M. J. Betancourt

Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides a powerful framework for inferring posterior distributions of stochastic simulators in a wide range of domains. In many settings, however, the posterior distribution is not the end goal itself --…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-19 Mila Gorecki , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or likelihood-free inference algorithms are used to find approximations to posterior distributions without making explicit use of the likelihood function, depending instead on simulation of sample data…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-09-08 Richard D. Wilkinson

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-30 James Cuin , Davide Carbone , Yanbo Tang , O. Deniz Akyildiz

Reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) offer complementary strengths, yet combining them at scale remains computationally challenging. We propose soft MPCritic, an RL-MPC framework that learns in (soft) value space…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-03 Thomas Banker , Nathan P. Lawrence , Ali Mesbah

We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo…