相关论文: Relationships between different Macroeconomic Vari…

We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…

We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic…

Various papers demonstrate the importance of inequality, poverty and the size of the middle class for economic growth. When explaining why these measures of the income distribution are added to the growth regression, it is often mentioned…

Among other macroeconomic indicators, the monthly release of U.S. unemployment rate figures in the Employment Situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics gets a lot of media attention and strongly affects the stock markets. I…

This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth,…

This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the…

We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector autoregression, we use macroeconomic and financial variables…

This article conducts a literature review on the topic of monetary policy in developing countries and focuses on the effectiveness of monetary policy in promoting economic growth and the relationship between monetary policy and economic…

Fields like public health, public policy, and social science often want to quantify the degree of dependence between variables whose relationships take on unknown functional forms. Typically, in fact, researchers in these fields are…

This study investigates the long-term effects of temperature variations on economic growth using a data-driven approach. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we analyze global land surface temperature data from Berkeley Earth and…

Conditional mutual information is important in the selection and interpretation of graphical models. Its empirical version is well known as a generalised likelihood ratio test and that it may be represented as a difference in entropy. We…

In this paper, we assess the impact of climate shocks on futures markets for agricultural commodities and a set of macroeconomic quantities for multiple high-income economies. To capture relations among countries, markets, and climate…

Both inflation and unemployment inflict social losses. When a tradeoff exists between the two, what would be the best combination of inflation and unemployment? A well known approach in economics to address this question consists to write…

Traditional econometric analyzes represent observations as vectors despite the inherent complexity of empirical data structures. When data are organized along dual classification dimensions, a matrix representation provides a more natural…

Behavior of systems that are functions of anticipated behavior of other systems, whose own behavior is also anticipatory but homeostatic and determined by hierarchical ordering, which changes over time, of sets of possible environments that…

As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…

Economic systems are similar with physic systems for their large number of individuals and the exist of equilibrium. In this paper, we present a model applying the equilibrium statistical model in economic systems. Consistent with…

Besides an indicator of the GDP, the Central Bank of Venezuela generates the so called Monthly Economic Activity General Indicator. The a priori knowledge of this indicator, which represents and sometimes even anticipates the economy's…

A key obstacle in automated analytics and meta-learning is the inability to recognize when different datasets contain measurements of the same variable. Because provided attribute labels are often uninformative in practice, this task may be…

Behavioral economics changed the way we think about market participants and revolutionized policy-making by introducing the concept of choice architecture. However, even though effective on the level of a population, interventions from…