相关论文: Bayesian Modelling in Practice: Using Uncertainty …

We describe the Bedside Patient Rescue (BPR) project, the goal of which is risk prediction of adverse events for non-ICU patients using ~200 variables (vitals, lab results, assessments, ...). There are several missing predictor values for…

Heart attack remain one of the greatest contributors to mortality in the United States and globally. Patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with diagnosed heart attack (myocardial infarction or MI) are at higher risk of death.…

Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

In nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis, the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology requires that computer model output uncertainties must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within…

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where datasets pertaining…

One of the main challenges of deep learning tools is their inability to capture model uncertainty. While Bayesian deep learning can be used to tackle the problem, Bayesian neural networks often require more time and computational power to…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

Machine learning systems show significant promise for forecasting patient adverse events via risk scores. However, these risk scores implicitly encode assumptions about future interventions that the patient is likely to receive, based on…

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Mortality risk is a major concern to patients have just been discharged from the intensive care unit (ICU). Many studies have been directed to construct machine learning models to predict such risk. Although these models are highly…

Artificial neural networks will always make a prediction, even when completely uncertain and regardless of the consequences. This obliviousness of uncertainty is a major obstacle towards their adoption in practice. Techniques exist,…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Recent advances in reconstruction methods for inverse problems leverage powerful data-driven models, e.g., deep neural networks. These techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performances for several imaging tasks, but they often do…

A Bayesian treatment of deep learning allows for the computation of uncertainties associated with the predictions of deep neural networks. We show how the concept of Errors-in-Variables can be used in Bayesian deep regression to also…

Modeling physiological time-series in ICU is of high clinical importance. However, data collected within ICU are irregular in time and often contain missing measurements. Since absence of a measure would signify its lack of importance, the…

Accurate mortality prediction allows Intensive Care Units (ICUs) to adequately benchmark clinical practice and identify patients with unexpected outcomes. Traditionally, simple statistical models have been used to assess patient death risk,…

Deep Bayesian neural network has aroused a great attention in recent years since it combines the benefits of deep neural network and probability theory. Because of this, the network can make predictions and quantify the uncertainty of the…

Motivated by the problem of computer-aided detection (CAD) of pulmonary nodules, we introduce methods to propagate and fuse uncertainty information in a multi-stage Bayesian convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture. The question we…

Deep neural networks are increasingly being used for the analysis of medical images. However, most works neglect the uncertainty in the model's prediction. We propose an uncertainty-aware deep kernel learning model which permits the…