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This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

In causal inference, encouragement designs (EDs) are widely used to analyze causal effects, when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are impractical or compliance to treatment cannot be perfectly enforced. Unlike RCTs, which directly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-20 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Xiangwei Chen , Zexu Sun , Fei Wu , Kun Zhang

Assume that one is interested in estimating an average treatment effect (ATE), equal to a weighted average of $S$ conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). One has unbiased estimators of the CATEs. One could just average the CATE…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-11 Clément de Chaisemartin

One of the main tasks of causal inference is estimating well-defined causal parameters. One of the main causal parameters is the average causal effect (ACE) - the expected value of the individual level causal effects in the target…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-17 Fernando Pires Hartwig

Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is a crucial aspect of incident management in large-scale cloud services. While the term root cause analysis or RCA has been widely used, different studies formulate the task differently. This is because the term…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2025-10-23 Aoyang Fang , Haowen Yang , Haoze Dong , Qisheng Lu , Junjielong Xu , Pinjia He

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is…

We consider continuous-time survival or more general event-history settings, where the aim is to infer the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment process. This is formalised as the effect on the outcome event of a (possibly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-23 Kjetil Røysland , Pål Ryalen , Mari Nygård , Vanessa Didelez

We present our experience as annotators in the creation of high-quality, adversarial machine-reading-comprehension data for extractive QA for Task 1 of the First Workshop on Dynamic Adversarial Data Collection (DADC). DADC is an emergent…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2022-06-30 Damian Y. Romero Diaz , Magdalena Anioł , John Culnan

Inferring the causal relationships among a set of variables in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is an important but notoriously challenging problem. Recently, advancements in high-throughput genomic perturbation screens have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-03 Seong Woo Han , Daniel Duy Vo , Brielin C. Brown

Algorithms and technologies are essential tools that pervade all aspects of our daily lives. In the last decades, health care research benefited from new computer-based recruiting methods, the use of federated architectures for data…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2023-01-26 Chiara Criscuolo , Tommaso Dolci , Mattia Salnitri

Data scarcity is a tremendous challenge in causal effect estimation. In this paper, we propose to exploit additional data sources to facilitate estimating causal effects in the target population. Specifically, we leverage additional source…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-01 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Trong Nghia Hoang , Tze-Yun Leong

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

Conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation is the de facto gold standard for targeting a treatment to a heterogeneous population. The method estimates treatment effects up to an error $\epsilon > 0$ in each of $M$ different…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-12 Sílvia Casacuberta , Moritz Hardt

Externally controlled trials (ECTs) are increasingly used when randomized controls are infeasible, unethical, or insufficient, including applications in rare diseases, oncology, pediatrics, and post-approval effectiveness research. Although…

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation, at the heart of counterfactual reasoning, is a crucial challenge for causal modeling both theoretically and applicatively, in domains such as healthcare, sociology, or advertising.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-27 Armand Lacombe , Michèle Sebag

A fundamental issue in causal inference for Big Observational Data is confounding due to covariate imbalances between treatment groups. This can be addressed by designing the data prior to analysis. Existing design methods, developed for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-17 Yumin Zhang , Arman Sabbaghi

In causal inference, and specifically in the \textit{Causes of Effects} problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and so how to assess the so-called {\em probability of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-23 Fabio Corradi , Monica Musio

Additive noise models (ANMs) are an important setting studied in causal inference. Most of the existing works on ANMs assume causal sufficiency, i.e., there are no unobserved confounders. This paper focuses on confounded ANMs, where a set…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-16 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Mahsa Ghasemi , Murat Kocaoglu

Trajectory prediction models in autonomous driving are vulnerable to perturbations from non-causal agents whose actions should not affect the ego-agent's behavior. Such perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions of other agents'…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2026-05-19 Ehsan Ahmadi , Ray Mercurius , Soheil Alizadeh , Kasra Rezaee , Amir Rasouli

Causal induction, i.e., identifying unobservable mechanisms that lead to the observable relations among variables, has played a pivotal role in modern scientific discovery, especially in scenarios with only sparse and limited data. Humans,…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2021-03-29 Chi Zhang , Baoxiong Jia , Mark Edmonds , Song-Chun Zhu , Yixin Zhu
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