相关论文: PAC-Bayes under potentially heavy tails

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

We study contrastive learning under the PAC learning framework. While a series of recent works have shown statistical results for learning under contrastive loss, based either on the VC-dimension or Rademacher complexity, their algorithms…

In this work, we propose a PAC-Bayes bound for the generalization risk of the Gibbs classifier in the multi-class classification framework. The novelty of our work is the critical use of the confusion matrix of a classifier as an error…

An agnostic PAC learning algorithm finds a predictor that is competitive with the best predictor in a benchmark hypothesis class, where competitiveness is measured with respect to a given loss function. However, its predictions might be…

Bayesian neural networks allow us to keep track of uncertainties, for example in top tagging, by learning a tagger output together with an error band. We illustrate the main features of Bayesian versions of established deep-learning…

In meta-learning an agent extracts knowledge from observed tasks, aiming to facilitate learning of novel future tasks. Under the assumption that future tasks are 'related' to previous tasks, the accumulated knowledge should be learned in a…

Existing research has either adapted the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayesian framework for federated learning (FL) or used information-theoretic PAC-Bayesian bounds while introducing their theorems, but few considering the non-IID…

Bernstein's condition is a key assumption that guarantees fast rates in machine learning. For example, the Gibbs algorithm with prior $\pi$ has an excess risk in $O(d_{\pi}/n)$, as opposed to the standard $O(\sqrt{d_{\pi}/n})$, where $n$…

We propose a novel class of deep stochastic predictors for classifying metric data on graphs within the PAC-Bayes risk certification paradigm. Classifiers are realized as linearly parametrized deep assignment flows with random initial…

The posterior variance of Gaussian processes is a valuable measure of the learning error which is exploited in various applications such as safe reinforcement learning and control design. However, suitable analysis of the posterior variance…

Bayesian methods lie at the heart of modern data science and provide a powerful scaffolding for estimation in data-constrained settings and principled quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Yet in many real-world use cases where…

The bias-variance trade-off is a well-known problem in machine learning that only gets more pronounced the less available data there is. In active learning, where labeled data is scarce or difficult to obtain, neglecting this trade-off can…

Large language models often produce confident but incorrect outputs, creating a critical need for reliable uncertainty quantification with formal abstention guarantees. We introduce information-lift certificates that compare model…

This paper studies the problem of learning Bayesian networks from continuous observational data, generated according to a linear Gaussian structural equation model. We consider an $\ell_0$-penalized maximum likelihood estimator for this…

We study polynomial time algorithms for estimating the mean of a heavy-tailed multivariate random vector. We assume only that the random vector $X$ has finite mean and covariance. In this setting, the radius of confidence intervals achieved…

The classical Bayesian posterior arises naturally as the unique solution of several different optimization problems, without the necessity of interpreting data as conditional probabilities and then using Bayes' Theorem. For example, the…

Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a principled framework for quantifying model uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge. However, their scalability is constrained by the computational cost of jointly…

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

This paper presents four theoretical contributions that improve the usability of risk certificates for neural networks based on PAC-Bayes bounds. First, two bounds on the KL divergence between Bernoulli distributions enable the derivation…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…