相关论文: Efficient and minimal length parametric conformal …

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Given a family of pretrained models and a hold-out set, how can we construct a valid conformal prediction set while selecting a model that minimizes the width of the set? If we use the same hold-out data set both to select a model (the…

Numerous studies have been devoted to the estimation and inference problems for functional linear models (FLM). However, few works focus on model checking problem that ensures the reliability of results. Limited tests in this area do not…

Conformal predictors, introduced by Vovk et al. (2005), serve to build prediction intervals by exploiting a notion of conformity of the new data point with previously observed data. In the present paper, we propose a novel method for…

We propose a general method for constructing confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of a large parameter vector in a high-dimensional model. It can be easily adjusted for multiplicity taking…

Cross-sectional prediction is common in many domains such as healthcare, including forecasting tasks using electronic health records, where different patients form a cross-section. We focus on the task of constructing valid prediction…

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid…

Conformal prediction (CP) generates a set of predictions for a given test sample such that the prediction set almost always contains the true label (e.g., 99.5\% of the time). CP provides comprehensive predictions on possible labels of a…

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for constructing prediction regions at a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a…

We develop joint confidence regions for linear regression coefficients when the regressors and errors are jointly stationary and ergodic with unspecified serial dependence. The method applies random smoothing, using an independent auxiliary…

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the…

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

We propose a robust method for constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals based on models for conditional distributions such as quantile and distribution regression. Our approach can be applied to important prediction problems…

Over the last few decades, various methods have been proposed for estimating prediction intervals in regression settings, including Bayesian methods, ensemble methods, direct interval estimation methods and conformal prediction methods. An…

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear…

An open question in \emph{Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning} is how to empirically derive a credal region (i.e., a closed and convex family of probabilities on the output space) from the available data, without any prior knowledge or…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

We present a unified theoretical framework for parametric low-rank approximation, a research area devoted to the development of efficient algorithms that act as adaptive alternatives of traditional methods such as Singular Value…