相关论文: Predictive inference with the jackknife+

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the…

We propose a new method called localized conformal prediction, where we can perform conformal inference using only a local region around a new test sample to construct its confidence interval. Localized conformal inference is a natural…

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Bivariate extreme-value distributions have been used in modeling extremes in environmental sciences and risk management. An important issue is estimating the dependence function, such as the Pickands dependence function. Some estimators for…

This work develops central limit theorems for cross-validation and consistent estimators of its asymptotic variance under weak stability conditions on the learning algorithm. Together, these results provide practical, asymptotically-exact…

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

We study distribution-free predictive inference for data with group symmetries, aiming to establish near-conditional coverage guarantees beyond exchangeability for structured data. While many predictive inference methods achieve a target…

Jackknife instrumental variable estimation (JIVE) is a classic method to leverage many weak instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate linear structural models, overcoming the bias of standard methods like two-stage least squares. In this…

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…

We study the generation of prediction intervals in regression for uncertainty quantification. This task can be formalized as an empirical constrained optimization problem that minimizes the average interval width while maintaining the…

This paper develops distribution theory and bootstrap-based inference methods for a broad class of convex pairwise difference estimators. These estimators minimize a kernel-weighted convex-in-parameter function over observation pairs with…

Fault detection is crucial to ensure the reliability of navigation systems. However, mainstream fault detection methods are developed based on Gaussian assumptions on nominal errors, while current attempts at non-Gaussian fault detection…

The aim of this paper is to propose a suitable method for constructing prediction intervals for the output of neural network models. To do this, we adapt the extremely randomized trees method originally developed for random forests to…

Unbiased assessment of the predictivity of models learnt by supervised machine-learning methods requires knowledge of the learned function over a reserved test set (not used by the learning algorithm). The quality of the assessment depends,…

This paper analyzes several different biases that emerge from the (possibly) low-precision nonparametric ingredient in a semiparametric model. We show that both the variance part and the bias part of the nonparametric ingredient can lead to…

Prediction credibility measures, in the form of confidence intervals or probability distributions, are fundamental in statistics and machine learning to characterize model robustness, detect out-of-distribution samples (outliers), and…

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Resampling methods are especially well-suited to inference with estimators that provide only "black-box'' access. Jackknife is a form of resampling, widely used for bias correction and variance estimation, that is well-understood under…

We analyze bias correction methods using jackknife, bootstrap, and Taylor series. We focus on the binomial model, and consider the problem of bias correction for estimating $f(p)$, where $f \in C[0,1]$ is arbitrary. We characterize the…

Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble…