相关论文: Modelling election dynamics and the impact of disi…
We consider the application of deep generative models in propagating uncertainty through complex physical systems. Specifically, we put forth an implicit variational inference formulation that constrains the generative model output to…
Biased news reporting poses a significant threat to informed decision-making and the functioning of democracies. This study introduces a novel methodology for scalable, minimally biased analysis of media bias in political news. The proposed…
Many biological regulatory systems process signals out of steady state and respond with a physiological delay. A simple model of regulation which respects these features shows how the ability of a delayed output to transmit information is…
The digital age provides new challenges as information travels more quickly in a system of increasing complexity. But it also offers new opportunities, as we can track and study the system more efficiently. Several studies individually…
Opinion dynamics, the evolution of individuals through social interactions, is an important area of research with applications ranging from politics to marketing. Due to its interdisciplinary relevance, studies of opinion dynamics remain…
The system of cellular automata, which expresses the process of dissemination and publication of the news among separate information resources, has been described. A bell-shaped dependence of news diffusion on internet-sources (web-sites)…
We study the effects of campaigning, where the society is partitioned into voter clusters and a diffusion process propagates opinions in a network connecting the clusters. Our model is very powerful and can incorporate many campaigning…
Internet platforms' traffic defines important characteristics of platforms, such as pricing of services, advertisements, speed of operations. One can estimate the traffic with the traditional time series models like ARIMA, Holt-Winters,…
We present a new framework for analyzing the evolution of information in geophysical systems. Understanding how information, and its counterpart, uncertainty, propagates is central to predictability studies and has significant implications…
Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n=861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective…
Understanding how individuals change their opinions is essential to mitigate the harmful effect of fake news and stop opinion polarization. Building upon an extremely flexible opinion dynamics model that can capture the key microscopic…
This special issue collects contributions from the participants of the "Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems" workshop, which cover a wide range of important problems and new approaches that lie in the intersection of…
We expect that democracy enables us to utilize collective intelligence such that our collective decisions build and enhance social welfare, and such that we accept their distributive and normative consequences. Collective decisions are…
The abundance of data affords researchers to pursue more powerful computational tools to learn the dynamics of complex system, such as neural networks, engineered systems and social networks. Traditional machine learning approaches capture…
The probability of a given candidate winning a future election is worked out in closed form as a function of (i) the current support rates for each candidate, (ii) the relative positioning of the candidates within the political spectrum,…
In this paper, a network-based stochastic information propagation model is developed. The information flow is modeled by a probabilistic differential equation system. The numerical solution of these equations leads to the expected number of…
Can Large Language Models (LLMs) accurately predict election outcomes? While LLMs have demonstrated impressive performance in various domains, including healthcare, legal analysis, and creative tasks, their ability to forecast elections…
People sometimes change their opinions when they discuss things with other people. Researchers can use mathematics to study opinion changes in simplifications of real-life situations. These simplified settings, which are examples of…
A discrete in time model of ideological competition is formulated taking into account population migration. The model is based on interactions between global populations of non-believers and followers of different ideologies. The complex…
Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion…