相关论文: Modelling election dynamics and the impact of disi…

Models of opinion dynamics describe how opinions are shaped in various environments. While these models are able to replicate general opinion distributions observed in real-world scenarios, their capacity to align with data at the user…

By adequate employing of complex event processing (CEP), valuable information can be extracted from the underlying complex system and used in controlling and decision situations. An example application area is management of IT systems for…

The diffusion of ideas is often closely connected to the creation and diffusion of knowledge and to the technological evolution of society. Because of this, knowledge creation, exchange and its subsequent transformation into innovations for…

Social media has emerged as a significant source of information for people. As agents interact with each other through social media platforms, they create numerous complex social networks. Within these networks, information spread among…

Considering electronic implications in the Information Society (IS) as a complex system, complexity science tools are used to describe the processes that are seen to be taking place. The sometimes troublesome relationship between the…

We present novel methods for predicting the outcome of large elections. Our first algorithm uses a diffusion process to model the time uncertainty inherent in polls taken with substantial calendar time left to the election. Our second model…

Denoising diffusion models enable conditional generation and density modeling of complex relationships like images and text. However, the nature of the learned relationships is opaque making it difficult to understand precisely what…

The voter model has been studied extensively as a paradigmatic opinion dynamics' model. However, its ability for modeling real opinion dynamics has not been addressed. We introduce a noisy voter model (accounting for social influence) with…

[Spreadsheet] Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different…

Despite many examples to the contrary, most models of elections assume that rules determining the winner will be followed. We present a model where elections are solely a public signal of the incumbent popularity, and citizens can protests…

A broad set of empirical phenomenon in the study of social, economic and machine behaviour can be modelled as complex systems with averaging dynamics. However many of these models naturally result in consensus or consensus-like outcomes. In…

Existing procedures for model validation have been deemed inadequate for many engineering systems. The reason of this inadequacy is due to the high degree of complexity of the mechanisms that govern these systems. It is proposed in this…

The process of opinion formation through synthesis and contrast of different viewpoints has been the subject of many studies in economics and social sciences. Today, this process manifests itself also in online social networks and social…

Mathematical models of complex social systems can enrich social scientific theory, inform interventions, and shape policy. From voting behavior to economic inequality and urban development, such models influence decisions that affect…

The statistical field theory of information dynamics on complex networks concerns the dynamical evolution of large classes of models of complex systems. Previous work has focused on networks where nodes carry an information field, which…

In this paper, we tackle the problem of innovation spreading from a modeling point of view. We consider a networked system of individuals, with a competition between two groups. We show its relation to the innovation spreading issues. We…

Complex systems are often modeled as Boolean networks in attempts to capture their logical structure and reveal its dynamical consequences. Approximating the dynamics of continuous variables by discrete values and Boolean logic gates may,…

Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversiality and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts we devise an extended…

In this work we study the interplay between the dynamics of a model of diffusion governed by a mechanism of imitation and its underlying structure. The dynamics of the model can be quantified by a macroscopic observable which permits the…

In this paper we extend some recent results on an operatorial approach to the description of alliances between political parties interacting among themselves and with a basin of electors. In particular, we propose and compare three…