相关论文: Skew selection for factor stochastic volatility mo…

Gaussian distributions are widely used in Bayesian variational inference to approximate intractable posterior densities, but the ability to accommodate skewness can improve approximation accuracy significantly, when data or prior…

We consider a novel Bayesian approach to estimation, uncertainty quantification, and variable selection for a high-dimensional linear regression model under sparsity. The number of predictors can be nearly exponentially large relative to…

A stochastic mode reduction strategy is applied to multiscale models with a deterministic energy-conserving fast sub-system. Specifically, we consider situations where the slow variables are driven stochastically and interact with the fast…

In a financial market model, we consider the variance-optimal semi-static hedging of a given contingent claim, a generalization of the classic variance-optimal hedging. To obtain a tractable formula for the expected squared hedging error…

Ensembles of decision trees are a useful tool for obtaining for obtaining flexible estimates of regression functions. Examples of these methods include gradient boosted decision trees, random forests, and Bayesian CART. Two potential…

Parameter shrinkage applied optimally can always reduce error and projection variances from those of maximum likelihood estimation. Many variables that actuaries use are on numerical scales, like age or year, which require parameters at…

There is a rich literature proposing methods and establishing asymptotic properties of Bayesian variable selection methods for parametric models, with a particular focus on the normal linear regression model and an increasing emphasis on…

The family of skew-symmetric distributions is a wide set of probability density functions obtained by combining in a suitable form a few components which are selectable quite freely provided some simple requirements are satisfied. Intense…

The unified skew-t (SUT) is a flexible parametric multivariate distribution that accounts for skewness and heavy tails in the data. A few of its properties can be found scattered in the literature or in a parameterization that does not…

Variable selection remains a difficult problem, especially for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). While some frequentist approaches to simultaneously select joint fixed and random effects exist, primarily through the use of…

We propose a general framework using spike-and-slab prior distributions to aid with the development of high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Our framework allows inference with a general quasi-likelihood function. We show that highly…

Variable selection over a potentially large set of covariates in a linear model is quite popular. In the Bayesian context, common prior choices can lead to a posterior expectation of the regression coefficients that is a sparse (or nearly…

Statistical modelling strategy is the key for success in data analysis. The trade-off between flexibility and parsimony plays a vital role in statistical modelling. In clustered data analysis, in order to account for the heterogeneity…

Several distributions and families of distributions are proposed to model skewed data, think, e.g., of skew-normal and related distributions. Lambert W random variables offer an alternative approach where, instead of constructing a new…

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Stochastic variational inference makes it possible to approximate posterior distributions induced by large datasets quickly using stochastic optimization. The algorithm relies on the use of fully factorized variational distributions.…

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

The univariate Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this article, we define a skewed version of the Birnbaum-Saunders…

We consider the use of Bayesian information criteria for selection of the graph underlying an Ising model. In an Ising model, the full conditional distributions of each variable form logistic regression models, and variable selection…

We discuss Bayesian analysis of multivariate time series with dynamic factor models that exploit time-adaptive sparsity in model parametrizations via the latent threshold approach. One central focus is on the transfer responses of multiple…