相关论文: A Bayesian Non-linear State Space Copula Model to …

In this tutorial we consider the non-linear Bayesian filtering of static parameters in a time-dependent model. We outline the theoretical background and discuss appropriate solvers. We focus on particle-based filters and present Sequential…

This is a relevant problem because the design of most cities prioritizes the use of motorized vehicles, which has degraded air quality in recent years, having a negative effect on urban health. Modeling, predicting, and forecasting ambient…

Air pollution has become a major threat to human health, making accurate forecasting crucial for pollution control. Traditional physics-based models forecast global air pollution by coupling meteorology and pollution processes, using either…

Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…

Current operational air quality forecasts are computationally expensive, sensitive to errors in physics and emissions, and often neglect weather-related uncertainty. To address these limitations, we present AirFusion, a hybrid,…

Air pollution constitutes the highest environmental risk factor in relation to heath. In order to provide the evidence required for health impact analyses, to inform policy and to develop potential mitigation strategies comprehensive…

We propose a new highly flexible and tractable Bayesian approach to undertake variable selection in non-Gaussian regression models. It uses a copula decomposition for the joint distribution of observations on the dependent variable. This…

Air pollution stands as the fourth leading cause of death globally. While extensive research has been conducted in this domain, most approaches rely on large datasets when it comes to prediction. This limits their applicability in…

Copulas provide an attractive approach for constructing multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of explicitly forecasting…

The sustainability of urban environments is an increasingly relevant problem. Air pollution plays a key role in the degradation of the environment as well as the health of the citizens exposed to it. In this chapter we provide a review of…

Accurate forecasting of bus travel time and its uncertainty is critical to service quality and operation of transit systems; for example, it can help passengers make better decisions on departure time, route choice, and even transport mode…

We propose a robust multi-fidelity Gaussian process for integrating sparse, high-quality reference monitors with dense but noisy citizen-science sensors. The approach replaces the Gaussian log-likelihood in the high-fidelity channel with a…

Public health researchers often estimate health effects of exposures (e.g., pollution, diet, lifestyle) that cannot be directly measured for study subjects. A common strategy in environmental epidemiology is to use a first-stage (exposure)…

The modeling of dynamical systems is a pervasive concern for not only describing but also predicting and controlling natural phenomena and engineered systems. Current data-driven approaches often assume prior knowledge of the relevant state…

Optimal design facilitates intelligent data collection. In this paper, we introduce a fully Bayesian design approach for spatial processes with complex covariance structures, like those typically exhibited in natural ecosystems. Coordinate…

One of the pivotal tasks in scientific machine learning is to represent underlying dynamical systems from time series data. Many methods for such dynamics learning explicitly require the derivatives of state data, which are not directly…

Understanding and predicting environmental phenomena often requires the construction of spatio-temporal statistical models, which are typically Gaussian processes. A common assumption made on Gaussian processes is that of covariance…

This paper studies a nonlinear filtering problem over an infinite time interval. The signal to be estimated is driven by a stochastic partial differential equation involves unknown parameters. Based on discrete observation, strongly…

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Air quality is closely related to public health. Health issues such as cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases, may have connection with long exposure to highly polluted environment. Therefore, accurate air quality forecasts are…