相关论文: Emergent regularities and scaling in armed conflic…

We have studied the kinetics of cluster formation for dynamical systems of dimensions up to $n=8$ interacting through elastic collisions or coalescence. These systems could serve as possible models for gas kinetics, polymerization and…

Experiments in various neural systems found avalanches: bursts of activity with characteristics typical for critical dynamics. A possible explanation for their occurrence is an underlying network that self-organizes into a critical state.…

This paper introduces new methods for studying the prevalence of terrorism around the world and over time. Our analysis treats spatial prevalence of terrorism, the changing profile of groups carrying out the acts of terrorism, and trends in…

Extreme weather events are projected to intensify global migration, increase resource competition, and amplify socio-spatial phenomena, including intergroup conflicts, socioeconomic inequalities, and unplanned displacements, among others.…

An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We seek a general description of state collapse spanning…

This paper proposes a model to explain the potential role of inter-group conflicts in determining the rise and fall of signaling norms. Individuals in a population are characterized by high and low productivity types and they are matched in…

Natural ecosystems are characterized by striking diversity of form and functions and yet exhibit deep symmetries emerging across scales of space, time and organizational complexity. Species-area relationships and species-abundance…

Societal complexity may be at a historical peak. Distinct from entropy, complexity tends to rise as systems move away from order, crest at an intermediate state, and decline as entropy continues increasing. The use of a thermodynamic…

Why are human societies unstable? Theories based on the observation of recurring patterns in historical data indicate that economic inequality, as well as social factors are key drivers. So far, models of this phenomenon are more…

Hysteresis loops and the associated avalanche statistics of spin systems, such as the random-field Ising and Edwards-Anderson spin-glass models, have been extensively studied. A particular focus has been on self-organized criticality,…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

Universality in the behavior of complex systems often reveals itself in the form of scale-invariant distributions that are essentially independent of the details of the microscopic dynamics. A representative paradigm of complex behavior in…

We propose a simple mathematical model to describe the evolution of violent crimes. For such purpose, we built a model based on ordinary differential equations that take into account the number of violent crimes and the number of legal and…

Research in network science has shown that many naturally occurring and technologically constructed networks are scale free, that means a power law degree distribution emerges from a growth model in which each new node attaches to the…

Hysteresis, the lag between the force and the response, is often associated with noisy, jerky motion which have recently been called ``avalanches''. The interesting question is why the avalanches come in such a variety of sizes: naively one…

The model of the current paper is an extension of a previous publication, wherein we used the leaky integrate-and-fire model on a regular lattice with periodic boundary conditions, and introduced the temporal complexity as a genuine…

In presence of long range dispersal, epidemics spread in spatially disconnected regions known as clusters. Here, we characterize exactly their statistical properties in a solvable model, in both the supercritical (outbreak) and critical…

Neural avalanches are collective firings of neurons that exhibit emergent scale-free behavior. Understanding the nature and distribution of these avalanches is an important element in understanding how the brain functions. We study a model…

The complexity of armed conflicts is expressed in the number of fatalities that may span several orders of magnitude. This study presents a minimalist, physics-informed approach to estimating the likelihood of extreme conflict fatalities at…

This article examines the structure and spatial patterns of violent political organizations in the Sahel-Sahara, a region characterized by growing political instability over the last 20 years. Drawing on a public collection of disaggregated…