相关论文: Detected changes in precipitation extremes at thei…
To address spatial boundary effects in climate networks, two surrogate-based correction methods, (1) subtraction and (2) division, have been widely applied in the literature. In the subtraction method, an original network measure is…
Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…
Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
To study the diurnal evolution of the convective cloud field, we develop a precipitation cell tracking algorithm which records the merging and fragmentation of convective cells during their life cycles, and apply it on large eddy simulation…
Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…
Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that…
In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to modified thermodynamic forcing or…
Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
We study the probabilistic behavior of persistence-based statistics and propose a novel nonparametric framework for detecting structural changes in high-dimensional random point clouds. We establish moment bounds and tightness results for…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…
One measurement modality for rainfall is a fixed location rain gauge. However, extreme rainfall, flooding, and other climate extremes often occur at larger spatial scales and affect more than one location in a community. For example, in…
The evaluation of possible climate change consequence on extreme rainfall has significant implications for the design of engineering structure and socioeconomic resources development. While many studies have assessed the impact of climate…
Current global warming is causing significant changes in snowfall in polar regions, directly impacting the mass balance of the ice caps. The only water supply in Antarctica, precipitation, is poorly estimated from surface measurements. The…
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
We develop a flexible spline-based Bayesian hidden Markov model stochastic weather generator to statistically model daily precipitation over time by season at individual locations. The model naturally accounts for missing data (considered…