相关论文: A Novel Maneuvering Target Tracking Approach by St…

Parametric estimation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been a subject of intense studies already for several decades. The Heston model for instance is driven by two coupled SDEs and is often used in financial mathematics for…

One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…

In this paper, we introduce a new jump process modeling which involves a particular kind of non-Gaussian stochastic processes with random jumps at random time points. The main goal of this study is to provide an accurate tracking technique…

A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…

It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…

This paper introduces a unique and valuable research design aimed at analyzing Bitcoin price volatility. To achieve this, a range of models from the Markov Switching-GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility (SARV) model classes are…

This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…

In this work, we explore modeling change points in time-series data using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs). We propose a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder (VAE)…

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an…

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…

This study investigates the dynamics of Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) by treating the score estimation error as a stochastic source driving the Fokker-Planck equation. Departing from particle-centric SDE analyses, we employ an SPDE…

In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for model discovery of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from a single trajectory, without requiring the ergodicity or stationary assumption on the underlying continuous process. By…

Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…

The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…

The real-time fault monitoring and control of the Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Moulding (VARTM) production process requires a knowledge of the position of the epoxy flow-front inside the mould. Therefore, a fast and accurate flow-front…

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation…

Stochastic sampling based trackers have shown good performance for abrupt motion tracking so that they have gained popularity in recent years. However, conventional methods tend to use a two-stage sampling paradigm, in which the search…

This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…

Models incorporating uncertain inputs, such as random forces or material parameters, have been of increasing interest in PDE-constrained optimization. In this paper, we focus on the efficient numerical minimization of a convex and smooth…