相关论文: Thermal convection, ensemble weather forecasting a…
Dealing with meteorological uncertainty poses a major challenge in air traffic management (ATM). Convective weather (commonly referred to as storms or thunderstorms) in particular represents a significant safety hazard that is responsible…
The paper analyzes the phenomenon of turbulent thermal diffusion in the Earth atmosphere, its relation to the turbulent diffusion and its potential impact on aerosol distribution. This phenomenon was predicted theoretically more than 10…
Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
Operational weather forecasting models have advanced for decades on both the explicit numerical solvers and the empirical physical parameterization schemes. However, the involved high computational costs and uncertainties in these existing…
Effects of quasi-point vortices on the inertial range of scales in homogeneous two-dimensional turbulence (classic and quantum) have been studied using the notion of distributed chaos. Results of direct numerical simulations of decaying…
Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within…
The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…
A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
Atmospheric flows, an example of turbulent fluid flows, exhibit fractal fluctuations of all space-time scales ranging from turbulence scale of mm -sec to climate scales of thousands of kilometers - years and may be visualized as a nested…
Large ensembles of climate projections are essential for characterizing uncertainty in future climate and extreme weather events, yet computational constraints of numerical climate models limit ensemble sizes to a small number of…
Earth's distant past and potentially its future include extremely warm "hothouse" climate states, but little is known about how the atmosphere behaves in such states. One distinguishing characteristic of hothouse climates is that they…
It is shown that in turbulent flows the distributed chaos with spontaneously broken translational space symmetry (homogeneity) has a stretched exponential spectrum $\exp-(k/k_{\beta})^{\beta }$ with $\beta =1/2$. Good agreement has been…
Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in…
Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
A ubiquitous arrangement in nature is a free-flowing fluid coupled to a porous medium, for example a river or lake lying above a porous bed. Depending on the environmental conditions, thermal convection can occur and may be confined to the…