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Intervention intuition is often used in model explanation where the intervention effect of a feature on the outcome is quantified by the difference of a model prediction when the feature value is changed from the current value to the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-22 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Characterising causal structure is an activity that is ubiquitous across the sciences. Causal models are representational devices that can be used as oracles for future interventions, to predict how values of some variables will change in…

量子物理 · 物理学 2018-09-11 G. J. Milburn , Sally Shrapnel

Causal diagrams based on do intervention are useful tools to formalize, process and understand causal relationship among variables. However, the do intervention has controversial interpretation of causal questions for non-manipulable…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2020-06-03 Gong Heyang , Zhu Ke

We address the problem of estimating the effect of intervening on a set of variables X from experiments on a different set, Z, that is more accessible to manipulation. This problem, which we call z-identifiability, reduces to ordinary…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-10-19 Elias Bareinboim , Judea Pearl

This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Russell Steele , Naftali Weinberger , Tess Baker , Ian Shrier

Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-04 Frederik Hytting Jørgensen , Luigi Gresele , Sebastian Weichwald

Researchers are often challenged with assessing the impact of an intervention on an outcome of interest in situations where the intervention is non-randomised, the intervention is only applied to one or few units, the intervention is…

To make accurate inferences in an interactive setting, an agent must not confuse passive observation of events with having intervened to cause them. The $do$ operator formalises interventions so that we may reason about their effect. Yet…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-04-12 Michael Timothy Bennett

In many fields$\unicode{x2013}$including genomics, epidemiology, natural language processing, social and behavioral sciences, and economics$\unicode{x2013}$it is increasingly important to address causal questions in the context of factor…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-30 Jenna M. Landy , Dafne Zorzetto , Roberta De Vito , Giovanni Parmigiani

The paper reviews methods that seek to draw causal inference from observational data and demonstrates how they can be applied to empirical problems in engineering research. It presents a framework for causal identification based on the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-11-28 Daniel J Graham

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-27 Gauranga Kumar Baishya

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Although review papers on causal inference methods are now available, there is a lack of introductory overviews on what they can render and on the guiding criteria for choosing one particular method. This tutorial gives an overview in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-01 Els Goetghebeur , Saskia le Cessie , Bianca De Stavola , Erica Moodie , Ingeborg Waernbaum

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-10-22 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde

Many causal models of interest in epidemiology involve longitudinal exposures, confounders and mediators. However, repeated measurements are not always available or used in practice, leading analysts to overlook the time-varying nature of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Lola Etievant , Vivian Viallon

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen
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