相关论文: The spatial-temporal risk index and spreading dyna…
Spatially explicit models have been widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work--static dispersal between…
During an epidemic outbreak, individuals often modify their behavior in response to global prevalence cues, using spatially mediated adaptations such as reduced mobility or transmission range. In this work, we investigate the impact of…
West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the genus Flavivirus that circulates between mosquitoes and birds, whereas humans, equids, and other mammals are dead-end hosts. Since its emergence in Germany in 2018, the virus has spread…
Given an endogenous timescale set by invasion in a constant environment, we introduced periodic temporal variation in competitive superiority by alternating the species' propagation rates. By manipulating habitat size and introduction rate,…
The objective is to model longitudinal and survival data jointly taking into account the dependence between the two responses in a real HIV/AIDS dataset using a shared parameter approach inside a Bayesian framework. We propose a linear…
In this paper, we develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure…
This paper involves a diffusive epidemic model whose domain has one free boundary with the Stefan boundary condition, and one fixed boundary subject to the usual homogeneous Dirichlet or Neumann condition. By using the standard upper and…
The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…
The time-varying reproduction number ($R_t$) gives an indication of the trajectory of an infectious disease outbreak. Commonly used frameworks for inferring $R_t$ from epidemiological time series include those based on compartmental models…
This paper investigates the influence of environmental noise on the characteristic timescale of the dynamics of density-dependent populations. General results are obtained on the statistics of time spent in rarity and time spent in…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…
In this paper we study a nonlinear infection viral propagation model with diffusion, in which, the left boundary is fixed and with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions, while the right boundary is free. We find that the habitat always…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
This paper develops a large-scale Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression model for the purpose of investigating regional trends in antibody prevalence to Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease. The proposed model…
In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
We introduce the effect of site contamination in a model for spatial epidemic spread and show that the presence of site contamination may have a strict effect on the model in the sense that it can make an otherwise subcritical process…
We study seasonal epidemic spreading in a susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model on smallworld graphs. We derive a mean-field description that accurately captures the salient features of the model, most notably a phase…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…