相关论文: An Agent-Based Model for Bovine Viral Diarrhea

The resurgence of vector-borne diseases is an increasing public health concern, and there is a need for a better understanding of their dynamics. For a number of diseases, e.g. dengue and chikungunya, this resurgence occurs mostly in urban…

Agent Based Models (ABMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for investigating complex social interactions, particularly in the context of public health and infectious disease investigation. In an effort to enhance the conventional ABM,…

We present an analysis of an avian flu model that yields insight into the role of different transmission routes in the recurrence of avian influenza epidemics. Recent modelling work on avian influenza in wild bird populations takes into…

Global trade of material goods involves the potential to create pathways for the spread of infectious pathogens. One trade sector in which this synergy is clearly critical is that of wildlife trade networks. This highly complex system…

Population inhomogeneity, in the variation of the individual social contact networks and the individual infectious-recovery rates, renders the dynamics of infectious disease spreading uncertain. As a consequence the overlaying economical…

Agent-based modeling is a computational dynamic modeling technique that may be less familiar to some readers. Agent-based modeling seeks to understand the behaviour of complex systems by situating agents in an environment and studying the…

Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of…

We develop a deep generative model built on a fully differentiable simulator for multi-agent trajectory prediction. Agents are modeled with conditional recurrent variational neural networks (CVRNNs), which take as input an ego-centric…

Zoonotic disease transmission between animals and humans is a growing risk and the agricultural context acts as a likely point of transition, with individual heterogeneity acting as an important contributor. Thus, understanding the dynamics…

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate…

In this paper we study a nonlinear reaction-diffusion system which models an infectious disease caused by bacteria such as those for cholera. One of the significant features in this model is that a certain portion of the recovered human…

Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction…

We examine how spatial heterogeneity combines with mobility network structure to influence vector-borne disease dynamics. Specifically, we consider a Ross-Macdonald-type disease model on $n$ spatial locations that are coupled by host…

The paper develops a stochastic Agent-Based Model (ABM) mimicking the spread of infectious diseases in geographical domains. The model is designed to simulate the spatiotemporal spread of SARS-CoV2 disease, known as COVID-19. Our…

A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…

Mosquito-borne diseases cause significant public health burden, mostly in tropical and sub-tropical regions, and are widely emerging or re-emerging in areas where previously absent. Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the spread of…

Livestock mobility, particularly that of small and large ruminants, is one of the main pillars of production and trade in West Africa: livestock is moved around in search of better grazing or sold in markets for domestic consumption and for…

During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…

In this chapter, an application of Mathematical Epidemiology to crop vector-borne diseases is presented to investigate the interactions between crops, vectors, and virus. The main illustrative example is the cassava mosaic disease (CMD).…

We propose a multi-patch model of cholera transmission integrating environmental contamination, human mobility, and nutritional vulnerability. The population is stratified by food security status, and transmission occurs via human contact,…