相关论文: Multivariate Ensemble Forecast Framework for Deman…

We focus on day-ahead electricity load forecasting of substations of the distribution network in France; therefore, our problem lies between the instability of a single consumption and the stability of a countrywide total demand. Moreover,…

Extreme weather variations and the increasing unpredictability of load behavior make it difficult to determine power grid dispatches that are robust to uncertainties. While machine learning (ML) methods have improved the ability to model…

Short-term industrial enterprises power system forecasting is an important issue for both load control and machine protection. Scientists focus on load forecasting but ignore other valuable electric-meters which should provide guidance of…

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a widely used methodology for state estimation in partial, noisily observed dynamical systems, and for parameter estimation in inverse problems. Despite its widespread use in the geophysical sciences,…

Forecasting power consumptions of integrated electrical, heat or gas network systems is essential in order to operate more efficiently the whole energy network. Multi-energy systems are increasingly seen as a key component of future energy…

To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run multiple times, each time with different formulations and/or…

Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), as a fundamental data assimilation approach, has been widely used in many fields of the sciences and engineering. When the state variable is of high dimensional accompanied with high resolution…

At the heart of time-series forecasting (TSF) lies a fundamental challenge: how can models efficiently and effectively capture long-range temporal dependencies across ever-growing sequences? While deep learning has brought notable progress,…

The ability to predict the behavior of a wireless channel in terms of the frame delivery ratio is quite valuable, and permits, e.g., to optimize the operating parameters of a wireless network at runtime, or to proactively react to the…

We present the first application of spectral nudging in a probabilistic ensemble forecasting framework, combining the physics-based ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System ensemble (IFS-ENS) with forecasts from the probabilistic machine-learned…

Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on…

In financial field, a robust software system is of vital importance to ensure the smooth operation of financial transactions. However, many financial corporations still depend on operators to identify and eliminate the system failures when…

Ensemble forecasts of weather and climate are subject to systematic biases in the ensemble mean and variance, leading to inaccurate estimates of the forecast mean and variance. To address these biases, ensemble forecasts are post-processed…

Electric load forecasting is an indispensable component of electric power system planning and management. Inaccurate load forecasting may lead to the threat of outages or a waste of energy. Accurate electric load forecasting is challenging…

A novel methodology for short-term energy forecasting using an Extreme Learning Machine ($\mathtt{ELM}$) is proposed. Using six years of hourly data collected in Corsica (France) from multiple energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, thermal,…

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline which is concerned with the analysis and prediction of equipment health and performance. One of the key challenges in PHM is to accurately predict impending…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are more suitable for learning non-linear dependencies in dynamical systems from observed time series data. In practice all the external variables driving such systems are not known a priori, especially in…

Accurate EV power estimation underpins range prediction and energy management, yet practitioners need both point accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty. We propose an anchored-ensemble Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with a Student-t likelihood…