相关论文: Joint Probability Distribution of Prediction Error…

The evaluation of the probability of union of a large number of independent events requires several combinations involving the factorial and the use of high performance computers with several hours of processing. Bounds and simplifications…

In this paper, we consider a linear regression model with AR(p) error terms with the assumption that the error terms have a t distribution as a heavy tailed alternative to the normal distribution. We obtain the estimators for the model…

This paper develops efficient algorithms for distributed average consensus with quantized communication using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). We first study the effects of probabilistic and deterministic…

Consider $K$ processes, each generating a sequence of identical and independent random variables. The probability measures of these processes have random parameters that must be estimated. Specifically, they share a parameter $\theta$…

Predicting human behavior is a difficult and crucial task required for motion planning. It is challenging in large part due to the highly uncertain and multi-modal set of possible outcomes in real-world domains such as autonomous driving.…

Current approaches for training Process Reward Models (PRMs) often involve breaking down responses into multiple reasoning steps using rule-based techniques, such as using predefined placeholder tokens or setting the reasoning step's length…

Regularization method and Bayesian inverse method are two dominating ways for solving inverse problems generated from various fields, e.g., seismic exploration and medical imaging. The two methods are related with each other by the MAP…

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but they inevitably generate errors throughout multi-step solutions. Process-level Reward Models (PRMs) have shown great promise by…

By using the matrix formulation of the two-step approach to the distributions of runs, a recursive relation and an explicit expression are derived for the generating function of the joint distribution of rises and falls for multivariate…

In this paper, we propose a computationally valid and theoretically justified methods, the likelihood ratio scan method (LRSM), for estimating multiple change-points in a piecewise stationary generalized conditional integer-valued…

Simulation-based probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology that has been used and refined over the past few decades to evaluate the risks associated with complex systems. SPRA models are well…

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Probabilistic forecasting of time series is an important matter in many applications and research fields. In order to draw conclusions from a probabilistic forecast, we must ensure that the model class used to approximate the true…

Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble…

We present an algorithmic approach to estimate the value distributions of random variables of probabilistic loops whose statistical moments are (partially) known. Based on these moments, we apply two statistical methods, Maximum Entropy and…

Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving…

A default assumption in many machine learning scenarios is that the training and test samples are drawn from the same probability distribution. However, such an assumption is often violated in the real world due to non-stationarity of the…

In this work we introduce the class of beta autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models for continuous random variables taking values in the continuous unit interval $(0,1)$. The proposed model accommodates a set of…

Time series prediction covers a vast field of every-day statistical applications in medical, environmental and economic domains. In this paper we develop nonparametric prediction strategies based on the combination of a set of 'experts' and…

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…