相关论文: Forecasting elections using compartmental models o…

In this review, we recall the concepts of Identifiability and Observability of dynamical systems, and analyse them in the framework of Mathematical Epidemiology. We show that, even for simple and well known models of the literature, these…

Many networks do not live in isolation but are strongly interacting, with profound consequences on their dynamics. Here, we consider the case of two interacting social networks and, in the context of a simple model, we address the case of…

Compartmental equations are primary tools in disease spreading studies. Their predictions are accurate for large populations but disagree with empirical and simulated data for finite populations, where uncertainties become a relevant…

Accurate modeling of opinion dynamics has the potential to help us understand polarization and what makes effective political discourse possible or impossible. Here, we use physics-based methods to model the evolution of political opinions…

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

Bots have become increasingly prevalent in the digital sphere and have taken up a proactive role in shaping democratic processes. While previous studies have focused on their influence at the individual level, their potential macro-level…

One of the hallmarks of a free and fair society is the ability to conduct a peaceful and seamless transfer of power from one leader to another. Democratically, this is measured in a citizen population's trust in the electoral system of…

Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

Over the years, American politics have become increasingly polarized. In the current political landscape, a president cannot easily collaborate with the opposite party and pass legislature. Ideologies between parties have drifted apart to…

Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts…

For more than a decade scholars have been investigating the disinformation flow on social media contextually to societal events, like, e.g., elections. In this paper, we analyze the Twitter traffic related to the US 2020 pre-election debate…

The integrity of democratic political discourse is at the core to guarantee free and fair elections. With social media often dictating the tones and trends of politics-related discussion, it is of paramount important to be able to study…

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…

Polls posted on social media have emerged in recent years as an important tool for estimating public opinion, e.g., to gauge public support for business decisions and political candidates in national elections. Here, we examine nearly two…

The 2024 US presidential election is the first major contest to occur in the US since the popularization of large language models (LLMs). Building on lessons from earlier shifts in media (most notably social media's well studied role in…

With the increasing frequency of major natural disasters, understanding their political consequences is of paramount importance for democratic accountability. The existing literature is deeply divided, with some studies finding that voters…

We consider the problem of forecasting complex, nonlinear space-time processes when observations provide only partial information of on the system's state. We propose a natural data-driven framework, where the system's dynamics are modelled…

The outcome of elections is strongly dependent on the districting choices, making thus possible (and frequent) the gerrymandering phenomenon, i.e.\ politicians suitably changing the shape of electoral districts in order to win the…

Differential equations are a ubiquitous tool to study dynamics, ranging from physical systems to complex systems, where a large number of agents interact through a graph with non-trivial topological features. Data-driven approximations of…

Our paper aims to analyze political polarization in US political system using Language Models, and thereby help candidates make an informed decision. The availability of this information will help voters understand their candidates views on…