相关论文: Focused econometric estimation for noisy and small…

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…

This paper proposes a novel exact maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method for general Gaussian processes, where all parameters are estimated jointly. The exact ML estimator (MLE) is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We…

We consider the task of estimating a low-rank matrix from non-linear and noisy observations. We prove a strong universality result showing that Bayes-optimal performances are characterized by an equivalent Gaussian model with an effective…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Unifying probabilistic and logical learning is a key challenge in AI. We introduce a Bayesian inductive logic programming approach that learns minimum message length hypotheses from noisy data. Our approach balances hypothesis complexity…

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

In various practical situations, we encounter data from stochastic processes which can be efficiently modelled by an appropriate parametric model for subsequent statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the most common estimation and inference…

This paper studies the properties of debiased machine learning (DML) estimators under a novel asymptotic framework, offering insights for improving the performance of these estimators in applications. DML is an estimation method suited to…

We re-visit the role model strategy introduced in an earlier paper, which allows one to train an estimator for degraded observations by imitating a reference estimator that has access to superior observations. We show that, while it is true…

Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are thought to be one of the most exciting gravitational wave sources to be detected with LISA. Due to their complicated nature and weak amplitudes the detection and parameter estimation of such sources…

Study samples often differ from the target populations of inference and policy decisions in non-random ways. Researchers typically believe that such departures from random sampling -- due to changes in the population over time and space, or…

In this study, we introduce a novel methodological framework called Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL), designed to address the computational challenges inherent in empirical likelihood (EL) approaches. Our approach has two…

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for equation discovery, yet their outputs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, a phenomenon we term instruction brittleness. Static prompts cannot adapt to the evolving state of a multi-step…

Modeling non-Markovian time series is a recent topic of research in many fields such as climate modeling, biophysics, molecular dynamics, or finance. The generalized Langevin equation (GLE), given naturally by the Mori-Zwanzig projection…

We present a framework for approximate Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained due to computational constraints, which is becoming increasingly common for applications of complex…

There are a lot of real-world black-box optimization problems that need to optimize multiple criteria simultaneously. However, in a multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem, identifying the whole Pareto front requires the prohibitive…

A popular approach to nonparametric option pricing is the Minimum Cross Entropy (MCE) method based on minimization of the relative Kullback-Leibler entropy of the price density distribution and a given reference density, with observable…

The purpose of this note is to show how the method of maximum entropy in the mean (MEM) may be used to improve parametric estimation when the measurements are corrupted by large level of noise. The method is developed in the context on a…

Learning with noisy labels is a common challenge in supervised learning. Existing approaches often require practitioners to specify noise rates, i.e., a set of parameters controlling the severity of label noises in the problem, and the…

Widely used methods for analyzing missing data can be biased in small samples. To understand these biases, we evaluate in detail the situation where a small univariate normal sample, with values missing at random, is analyzed using either…