相关论文: An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction with AFT: The…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields change their polarity near the maximum of sunspot activity. We analyzed the polarity reversal epochs in Solar Cycles 21 to 24. There was a triple reversal in the N-hemisphere in Solar Cycle 24 and single…
Analysis of synoptic data from the Vector Stokes Magnetograph (VSM) of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) and the NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) at the NSO/Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope facility shows that the…
Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes of the ongoing Cycle~25 have been made. We show that an aspect of the Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e., a…
Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend…
We study the asymmetric distribution of weak photospheric magnetic field values in the two hemispheres separately using synoptic maps from SDO/HMI, SOLIS/VSM and WSO during solar cycles 21-24. We calculate the weak-field asymmetry (shift)…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…
The extended minimum of Solar Cycle 23, the extremely quiet solar-wind conditions prevailing, and the mini-maximum of Solar Cycle 24 drew global attention and many authors have since attempted to predict the amplitude of the upcoming Solar…
Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…
We review the surface flux transport model for the evolution of magnetic flux patterns on the Sun's surface. Our underlying motivation is to understand the model's prediction of the polar field (or axial dipole) strength at the end of the…
The evolution of solar surface magnetic fields is essential for understanding solar activity and the underlying dynamic process. The surface flux transport (SFT) model is a widely used and effective tool for simulating this evolution.…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar…
The solar polar fields reverse because magnetic flux from decaying sunspots moves towards the poles, with a preponderance of flux from the trailing spots. Let us assume that there is a strong asymmetry in the sense that all activity is in…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have…
Maps of the magnetic field at the Sun's surface are commonly used as boundary conditions in space-weather modeling. However, continuous observations are only available from the Sun's Earth-facing side. One commonly used approach to mitigate…
The ongoing 11-year cycle of solar activity is considerably less vigorous than the three cycles before. It was preceded by a very deep activity minimum with a low polar magnetic flux, the source of the toroidal field responsible for solar…
The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series…