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We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

Self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) methods are recently proposed to accelerate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods using a machine learning model. With latent generative models, SLMC methods realize efficient Monte Carlo updates with less…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-09-21 Yuma Ichikawa , Akira Nakagawa , Hiromoto Masayuki , Yuhei Umeda

This work describes a domain embedding technique between two non-matching meshes used for generating realizations of spatially correlated random fields with applications to large-scale sampling-based uncertainty quantification. The goal is…

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-02-07 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Raul Tempone , Yan Zhou

We propose a Multi-level Monte Carlo technique to accelerate Monte Carlo sampling for approximation of properties of materials with random defects. The computational efficiency is investigated on test problems given by tight-binding models…

数值分析 · 数学 2016-11-30 Petr Plecháč , Erik von Schwerin

Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-05-15 Rohitash Chandra , Konark Jain , Arpit Kapoor , Ashray Aman

Stochastic inverse problems are generally solved by some form of finite sampling of a space of uncertain parameters. For computationally expensive models, surrogate response surfaces are often employed to increase the number of samples used…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-07-04 Steven Mattis , Barbara Wohlmuth

We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Joonha Park

Bayesian formulations of inverse problems are attractive for their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and update probabilistic models as new data become available. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample posterior probability…

地球物理 · 物理学 2025-05-07 Giovanni Angelo Meles , Stefano Marelli , Niklas Linde

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

This paper considers the problem of optimizing the average tracking error for an elliptic partial differential equation with an uncertain lognormal diffusion coefficient. In particular, the application of the multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-09-30 Philipp A. Guth , Andreas Van Barel

We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Random field Monte Carlo (MC) reliability analysis is a robust stochastic method to determine the probability of failure. This method, however, requires a large number of numerical simulations demanding high computational costs. This paper…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-04-14 Mohammad Aminpour , Reza Alaie , Navid Kardani , Sara Moridpour , Majidreza Nazem

We propose a new Monte Carlo method for sampling from multimodal distributions. The idea of this technique is based on splitting the task into two: finding the modes of a target distribution $\pi$ and sampling, given the knowledge of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-01-14 Emilia Pompe , Chris Holmes , Krzysztof Łatuszyński

We explore a hybrid technique to quantify the variability in the numerical solutions to a free boundary problem associated with magnetic equilibrium in axisymmetric fusion reactors amidst parameter uncertainties. The method aims at reducing…

计算物理 · 物理学 2026-03-03 Howard Elman , Jiaxing Liang , Tonatiuh Sánchez-Vizuet

We develop a framework that allows the use of the multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) methodology (Giles2015) to calculate expectations with respect to the invariant measure of an ergodic SDE. In that context, we study the (over-damped) Langevin…

Posterior sampling by Monte Carlo methods provides a more comprehensive solution approach to inverse problems than computing point estimates such as the maximum posterior using optimization methods, at the expense of usually requiring many…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-11-28 Paolo Villani , Daniel Andrés-Arcones , Jörg F. Unger , Martin Weiser

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) is a variance reduction method that leverages a multi-fidelity ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy levels. Constructing an MFMC estimator with optimal variance requires knowledge of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-25 Michael Stanley , Thomas Coons , Geoffrey Bomarito , Patrick Leser , Joshua Pribe , James Warner

In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and multilevel…

数值分析 · 数学 2015-06-18 Yalchin Efendiev , Bangti Jin , Michael Presho , Xiaosi Tan