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Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2026-04-20 Bidya Binay Karak

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-05-20 K. Petrovay

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2008-11-26 Arnab Rai Choudhuri , Piyali Chatterjee , Jie Jiang

The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2020-07-30 Eleni Petrakou

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2020-03-05 Kristof Petrovay

Solar cycle activity forecasting, mainly its magnitude and timing, is an essential issue for numerous scientific and technological applications: in fact, during an active solar period, many strong eruptions occur on the Sun with increasing…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2012-10-01 Stefano Sello

Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2022-02-16 Wei Guo , Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang

The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2024-12-25 Akash Biswas

The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-05-19 Z. L. Du , H. N. Wang

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2010-03-23 David H. Hathaway

Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes of the ongoing Cycle~25 have been made. We show that an aspect of the Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e., a…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2022-05-24 Pawan Kumar , Akash Biswas , Bidya Binay Karak

Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact.…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2019-02-15 Stefano Sello

Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2024-02-21 Peixin Luo , Baolin Tan

Solar activity and solar wind parameters decreased significantly in solar cycles (SCs) 23-24. In this paper, we analyze solar wind measurements at the rising phase of SC 25 and compare them with similar data from the previous cycles. For…

The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2021-03-31 Dibyendu Nandy

Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2009-06-25 Manfred Schuessler

Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2021-11-24 Valentina Penza , Francesco Berrilli , Luca Bertello , Matteo Cantoresi , Serena Criscuoli

Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2025-07-02 L. Jouve , C. P. Hung , A. S. Brun , S. Hazra , A. Fournier , O. Talagrand , B. Perri , A. Strugarek

The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2025-02-20 Floe Foxon

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2019-09-11 Prantika Bhowmik , Dibyendu Nandy
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