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We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-05-01 Paolo Villani , Jörg Unger , Martin Weiser

We propose a data-efficient Gaussian process-based Bayesian approach to the semi-supervised learning problem on graphs. The proposed model shows extremely competitive performance when compared to the state-of-the-art graph neural networks…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-10-15 Yin Cheng Ng , Nicolo Colombo , Ricardo Silva

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian non-parametric models useful in a myriad of applications. Despite their popularity, the cost of GP predictions (quadratic storage and cubic complexity with respect to the number of training points)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-24 Alec M. Dunton , Benjamin W. Priest , Amanda Muyskens

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become a popular strategy for global optimization of expensive real-world functions. Contrary to a common expectation that BO is suited to optimizing black-box functions, it actually requires domain knowledge…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-06 Zi Wang , George E. Dahl , Kevin Swersky , Chansoo Lee , Zachary Nado , Justin Gilmer , Jasper Snoek , Zoubin Ghahramani

We introduce a new, rigorously-formulated Bayesian meta-learning algorithm that learns a probability distribution of model parameter prior for few-shot learning. The proposed algorithm employs a gradient-based variational inference to infer…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-21 Cuong Nguyen , Thanh-Toan Do , Gustavo Carneiro

Bayesian optimization is a powerful paradigm to optimize black-box functions based on scarce and noisy data. Its data efficiency can be further improved by transfer learning from related tasks. While recent transfer models meta-learn a…

We study the average case performance of multi-task Gaussian process (GP) regression as captured in the learning curve, i.e. the average Bayes error for a chosen task versus the total number of examples $n$ for all tasks. For GP covariances…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-11-05 Simon R. F. Ashton , Peter Sollich

Gaussian process regression is a powerful method for predicting states based on given data. It has been successfully applied for probabilistic predictions of structural systems to quantify, for example, the crack growth in mechanical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-20 Simon Pfingstl , Markus Zimmermann

Bayesian meta-learning enables robust and fast adaptation to new tasks with uncertainty assessment. The key idea behind Bayesian meta-learning is empirical Bayes inference of hierarchical model. In this work, we extend this framework to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-19 Yayi Zou , Xiaoqi Lu

This work is concerned with the convergence of Gaussian process regression. A particular focus is on hierarchical Gaussian process regression, where hyper-parameters appearing in the mean and covariance structure of the Gaussian process…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-07-20 Aretha L Teckentrup

Trial-and-error based reinforcement learning (RL) has seen rapid advancements in recent times, especially with the advent of deep neural networks. However, the majority of autonomous RL algorithms require a large number of interactions with…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2018-02-23 Sanket Kamthe , Marc Peter Deisenroth

Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-04-27 Giorgio Corani , Alessio Benavoli , Marco Zaffalon

Mechanistic simulation models are inverted against observations in order to gain inference on modeled processes. However, with the increasing ability to collect high resolution observations, these observations represent more patterns of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-12-20 Thomas Wutzler

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are known to provide accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates even with small amounts of labeled data by capturing similarity between data points through their kernel function. However traditional GP kernels…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-16 Ankur Mallick , Chaitanya Dwivedi , Bhavya Kailkhura , Gauri Joshi , T. Yong-Jin Han

This paper introduces a method for the nonparametric Bayesian learning of nonlinear operators, through the use of the Volterra series with kernels represented using Gaussian processes (GPs), which we term the nonparametric Volterra kernels…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-11 Magnus Ross , Michael T. Smith , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-08 Sofia L. Vega , Rachel C. Nethery

We undertake Bayesian learning of the high-dimensional functional relationship between a system parameter vector and an observable, that is in general tensor-valued. The ultimate aim is Bayesian inverse prediction of the system parameters,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-17 Kangrui Wang , Dalia Chakrabarty

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-29 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

Meta-learning aims to extract useful inductive biases from a set of related datasets. In Bayesian meta-learning, this is typically achieved by constructing a prior distribution over neural network parameters. However, specifying families of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-13 Krunoslav Lehman Pavasovic , Jonas Rothfuss , Andreas Krause