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I propose a new type of confidence interval for correct asymptotic inference after using data to select a model of interest without assuming any model is correctly specified. This hybrid confidence interval is constructed by combining…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-25 Adam McCloskey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-18 Zhizhong Zhao , Ke Chen

Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade-off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-08-17 David Weiss , Benjamin Sapp , Ben Taskar

Sign-Perturbed Sum (SPS) is a powerful finite-sample system identification algorithm which can construct confidence regions for the true data generating system with exact coverage probabilities, for any finite sample size. SPS was developed…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-01-30 Szabolcs Szentpéteri , Balázs Csanád Csáji

This paper addresses the problem of selective classification for deep neural networks, where a model is allowed to abstain from low-confidence predictions to avoid potential errors. We focus on so-called post-hoc methods, which replace the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-23 Luís Felipe P. Cattelan , Danilo Silva

The closure and the partitioning principles have been used to build various multiple testing procedures in the past three decades. The essence of these two principles is based on parameter space partitioning. In this article, we propose a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-11-20 Huajiang Li , Hong Zhou

In this paper, we compute finite sample bounds for data-driven approximations of the solution to stochastic reachability problems. Our approach uses a nonparametric technique known as kernel distribution embeddings, and provides…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-12-09 Adam J. Thorpe , Kendric R. Ortiz , Meeko M. K. Oishi

Many scientific analyses require simultaneous comparison of multiple functionals of an unknown signal at once, calling for multidimensional confidence regions with guaranteed simultaneous frequentist under structural constraints (e.g.,…

Although deep neural networks yield high classification accuracy given sufficient training data, their predictions are typically overconfident or under-confident, i.e., the prediction confidences cannot truly reflect the accuracy. Post-hoc…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-02-15 Jiexin Wang , Jiahao Chen , Bing Su

A general approach to selective inference is considered for hypothesis testing of the null hypothesis represented as an arbitrary shaped region in the parameter space of multivariate normal model. This approach is useful for hierarchical…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-03-28 Yoshikazu Terada , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

With the increasing application of deep learning in mission-critical systems, there is a growing need to obtain formal guarantees about the behaviors of neural networks. Indeed, many approaches for verifying neural networks have been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-08-17 Tom Zelazny , Haoze Wu , Clark Barrett , Guy Katz

Large-scale multiple testing is a fundamental problem in high dimensional statistical inference. It is increasingly common that various types of auxiliary information, reflecting the structural relationship among the hypotheses, are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-07 Hongyuan Cao , Jun Chen , Xianyang Zhang

In this paper we develop procedures to construct simultaneous confidence bands for $\tilde p$ potentially infinite-dimensional parameters after model selection for general moment condition models where $\tilde p$ is potentially much larger…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Denis Chetverikov , Ying Wei

While traditional multiple testing procedures prohibit adaptive analysis choices made by users, Goeman and Solari (2011) proposed a simultaneous inference framework that allows users such flexibility while preserving high-probability bounds…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-01-05 Eugene Katsevich , Aaditya Ramdas

The problem of probabilistic verification of a neural network investigates the probability of satisfying the safe constraints in the output space when the input is given by a probability distribution. It is significant to answer this…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-04-24 Jingyang Li , Xin Chen , Hongfei Fu , Guoqiang Li

A reliable deep learning system should be able to accurately express its confidence with respect to its predictions, a quality known as calibration. One of the most effective ways to produce reliable confidence estimates with a pre-trained…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-10 Thomas P. Zollo , Zhun Deng , Jake C. Snell , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Requirements driven search-based testing (also known as falsification) has proven to be a practical and effective method for discovering erroneous behaviors in Cyber-Physical Systems. Despite the constant improvements on the performance and…

Source-free object detection (SFOD) aims to adapt a source-trained detector to an unlabeled target domain without access to the labeled source data. Current SFOD methods utilize a threshold-based pseudo-label approach in the adaptation…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-10-20 Zhihong Chen , Zilei Wang , Yixin Zhang

We present a general theoretical analysis of structured prediction with a series of new results. We give new data-dependent margin guarantees for structured prediction for a very wide family of loss functions and a general family of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-12-02 Corinna Cortes , Mehryar Mohri , Vitaly Kuznetsov , Scott Yang

We derive non-asymptotic confidence regions for the mean of a random vector whose coordinates have an unknown dependence structure. The random vector is supposed to be either Gaussian or to have a symmetric bounded distribution, and we…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-02-07 Sylvain Arlot , Gilles Blanchard , Etienne Roquain