相关论文: Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux…

The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase and minimum of Cycle 23 and the recent rise of Cycle 24 are compared with the behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the…

Using time-distance helioseismology applied to 14-years of SDO/HMI observations spanning solar cycle 24 and rising phase of cycle 25, we present evidence that meridional flows in the lower half of the near-surface shear layer (NSSL),…

The occurrence of grand minima like the Maunder minimum is an intriguing aspect of the sunspot cycle. We use the flux transport dynamo model to explain the grand minima, showing that they arise when either the poloidal field or the…

Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact.…

A solar-type dynamo model in a spherical shell is developed with allowance for random dependence of the poloidal field generation mechanism on time and latitude. The model shows repeatable epochs of strongly decreased amplitude of magnetic…

We explore a two-dimensional kinematic solar dynamo model in a full sphere, based on the helioseismically determined solar rotation profile and with an $\alpha$ effect concentrated near the solar surface, which captures the…

Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview…

Space-weather and disturbances in the heliosphere are manifestations of the solar magnetic field, which is solely driven by the interior dynamo, and constraining the solar interior magnetic field and its oscillatory behavior is one of the…

Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum…

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…

Over the past century, the Sun's activity -- which exhibits significant variations -- went through a phase known as the Modern Maximum. Notably, the strongest sunspot cycle on record during this period, and indeed since direct sunspot…

The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…

The 11-yr cycle of sunspots undergo amplitude modulation over longer timescales. As a part of this long-term modulation in solar activity, the decennial rhythm occasionally breaks, with quiescent phases with very few sunspots observed over…

We studied the effect of the perturbation of the meridional flow in the activity belts detected by local helioseismology on the development and strength of the surface magnetic field at the polar caps. We carried out simulations of…

We point out the difficulties in carrying out direct numerical simulation of the solar dynamo problem and argue that kinematic mean-field models are our best theoretical tools at present for explaining various aspects of the solar cycle in…

In the declining phase of the solar cycle, when the new-polarity fields of the solar poles are strengthened by the transport of same-signed magnetic flux from lower latitudes, the polar coronal holes expand and form non-axisymmetric…

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…

Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…

The paper presents a study of kinematic axisymmetric mean-field dynamo models for a case of the meridional circulation with a deep-seated stagnation point and a strong return flow at the bottom of the convection zone. This kind of…

In 1969 Leighton developed a quasi-1D mathematical model of the solar dynamo, building upon the phenomenological scenario of Babcock(1961). Here we present a modification and extension of Leighton's model. Using the axisymmetric component…