相关论文: Weak error for nested Multilevel Monte Carlo

The (relevance) weighted likelihood was introduced to formally embrace a variety of statistical procedures that trade bias for precision. Unlike its classical counterpart, the weighted likelihood combines all relevant information while…

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty quantification in PDE models. It combines approximations at different levels of accuracy using a hierarchy of…

We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate,…

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

This paper contributes to the literature on treatment effects estimation with machine learning inspired methods by studying the performance of different estimators based on the Lasso. Building on recent work in the field of high-dimensional…

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in a wide range of tasks. However, their reasoning capabilities, particularly in complex domains like mathematics, remain a significant challenge. Value-based process verifiers,…

In the regression model with errors in variables, we observe $n$ i.i.d. copies of $(Y,Z)$ satisfying $Y=f_{\theta^0}(X)+\xi$ and $Z=X+\epsilon$ involving independent and unobserved random variables $X,\xi,\epsilon$ plus a regression…

We study the feature-scaled version of the Monte Carlo algorithm with linear function approximation. This algorithm converges to a scale-invariant solution, which is not unduly affected by states having feature vectors with large norms. The…

This paper introduces a new biased estimator for the negative binomial regression model that is a generalization of Liu-type estimator proposed for the linear model in [12]. Since the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is…

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any…

Envelope methodology is succinctly pitched as a class of procedures for increasing efficiency in multivariate analyses without altering traditional objectives \citep[first sentence of page 1]{cook2018introduction}. This description is true…

Multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer the direct effects of multiple exposures on an outcome. However, unlike univariable Mendelian randomization, MVMR often faces greater…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

In this paper we present a rigorous cost and error analysis of a multilevel estimator based on randomly shifted Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) lattice rules for lognormal diffusion problems. These problems are motivated by uncertainty…

This paper addresses the key challenge of estimating the asymptotic covariance associated with the Markov chain central limit theorem, which is essential for visualizing and terminating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. We focus…

As one of the most commonly seen data challenges, missing data, in particular, multiple, non-monotone missing patterns, complicates estimation and inference due to the fact that missingness mechanisms are often not missing at random, and…

Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…

Expected values weighted by the inverse of a multivariate density or, equivalently, Lebesgue integrals of regression functions with multivariate regressors occur in various areas of applications, including estimating average treatment…

Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo…