相关论文: Generic Conditions for Forecast Dominance

Point forecasts can be interpreted as functionals (i.e., point summaries) of predictive distributions. We consider the situation where forecasters' directives are hidden and develop methodology for the identification of the unknown…

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Predictions in the social world generally influence the target of prediction, a phenomenon known as performativity. Self-fulfilling and self-negating predictions are examples of performativity. Of fundamental importance to economics,…

Forecast combination and model averaging have become popular tools in forecasting and prediction, both of which combine a set of candidate estimates with certain weights and are often shown to outperform single estimates. A data-driven…

Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little…

Referring to a standard context of voting theory, and to the classic notion of voting situation, here we show that it is possible to observe any arbitrary set of elections' outcomes, no matter how paradoxical it may appear. On this purpose…

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

Prediction problems in finance go beyond estimating the unknown parameters of a model (e.g. of expected returns). This is because such a model would have to include parameters governing the market participants' propensity to change their…

For two causal structures with the same set of visible variables, one is said to observationally dominate the other if the set of distributions over the visible variables realizable by the first contains the set of distributions over the…

Stochastic dominance is an important concept in probability theory, econometrics and social choice theory for robustly modeling agents' preferences between random outcomes. While many works have been dedicated to the univariate case, little…

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results…

Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed…

This paper provides conditions on the observation probability distribution in Bayesian localization and optimal filtering so that the conditional mean estimate satisfies convex stochastic dominance. Convex dominance allows us to compare the…

This paper provides a nonparametric analysis for several classes of models, with cases such as classical measurement error, regression with errors in variables, factor models and other models that may be represented in a form involving…

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

Most of the stochastic orders for comparing random variables, considered in the literature, are afflicted with two main drawbacks: (i) lack of connex property and (ii) lack of consideration of any dependence structure between the random…

Mitigating bias in training on biased datasets is an important open problem. Several techniques have been proposed, however the typical evaluation regime is very limited, considering very narrow data conditions. For instance, the effect of…

We introduce a novel approach for comparing out-of-sample multi-step forecasts obtained from a pair of nested models that is based on the forecast encompassing principle. Our proposed approach relies on an alternative way of testing the…

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…