相关论文: Bayesian models in geographic profiling

Common cluster models for multi-type point processes model the aggregation of points of the same type. In complete contrast, in the study of Anglo-Saxon settlements it is hypothesized that administrative clusters involving complementary…

We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…

Inspired by European actions to fight organised crimes, we develop a choice-based resource allocation model that can help policy makers to reduce the number of pickpocket attempts. In this model, the policy maker needs to allocate a limited…

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) offer a practical alternative for addressing logistical challenges and ensuring feasibility in community health, education, and prevention studies, even though randomized controlled trials are considered the…

Compared to mean regression and quantile regression, the literature on modal regression is very sparse. A unifying framework for Bayesian modal regression is proposed, based on a family of unimodal distributions indexed by the mode, along…

Software is highly contextual. While there are cross-cutting `global' lessons, individual software projects exhibit many `local' properties. This data heterogeneity makes drawing local conclusions from global data dangerous. A key research…

We devise an algorithm using a Bayesian optimization framework in conjunction with contextual visual data for the efficient localization of objects in still images. Recent research has demonstrated substantial progress in object…

In this paper, we investigate the problem of joint searching and tracking of multiple mobile targets by a group of mobile agents. The targets appear and disappear at random times inside a surveillance region and their positions are random…

Monitoring small-area geographical population trends in opioid mortality has large scale implications to informing preventative resource allocation. A common approach to obtain small area estimates of opioid mortality is to use a standard…

Disease mapping is the field of spatial epidemiology interested in estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across $n$ areal units. One aim is to identify units exhibiting elevated disease risks, so that public health interventions…

Much effort is being made to ensure the safety of people. One of the main requirements of travellers and city administrators is to have knowledge of places that are more prone to criminal activities. To rate a place as a potential crime…

Theory of graphical models has matured over more than three decades to provide the backbone for several classes of models that are used in a myriad of applications such as genetic mapping of diseases, credit risk evaluation, reliability and…

Biomarker analysis of athletes' urinary steroid profiles is crucial for the success of anti-doping efforts. Current statistical analysis methods generate personalised limits for each athlete based on univariate modelling of longitudinal…

We consider an operational model of suicide bombing attacks -- an increasingly prevalent form of terrorism -- against specific targets, and the use of protective countermeasures based on the deployment of detectors over the area under…

We consider the problem of assessing goodness of fit of a single Bayesian model to the observed data in the inverse problem context. A novel procedure of goodness of fit test is proposed, based on construction of reference distributions…

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

The problem of validating or criticising models for georeferenced data is challenging, since the conclusions can vary significantly depending on the locations of the validation set. This work proposes the use of cross-validation techniques…

Doubly-intractable posterior distributions arise in many applications of statistics concerned with discrete and dependent data, including physics, spatial statistics, machine learning, the social sciences, and other fields. A specific…

Automotive insurers increasingly have access to telematic information via black-box recorders installed in the insured vehicle, and wish to identify undesirable behaviour which may signify increased risk or uninsured activities. However,…