相关论文: Quantifying Age and Model Uncertainties in Paleocl…

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in…

Deep learning has played a major role in the interpretation of dermoscopic images for detecting skin defects and abnormalities. However, current deep learning solutions for dermatological lesion analysis are typically limited in providing…

The dynamics of phase transitions plays a crucial r\^ole in the so-called interface between high energy particle physics and cosmology. Many of the interesting results generated during the last fifteen years or so rely on simplified…

The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but…

Obtaining accurate estimates of uncertainty in climate scenarios often requires generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate simulations, a computationally expensive and memory intensive process. To address this challenge, we train…

For more than four decades, scientists have been trying to find an answer to one of the most fundamental questions in paleoclimatology, the `faint young Sun problem'. For the early Earth, models of stellar evolution predict a solar energy…

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change.…

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to rapidly evolve, the realm of Earth and atmospheric sciences is increasingly adopting data-driven models, powered by progressive developments in deep learning (DL). Specifically, DL techniques are…

In this paper we extend models of thermal conduction with phase transition from micro- to macro-scale. Such models were previously developed for soils in permafrost regions from pore to Darcy scale, and the Darcy scale models compare well…

Subgroup analysis evaluates treatment effects across multiple sub-populations. When subgroups are defined by latent memberships inferred from imperfect measurements, the analysis typically involves two inter-connected models, a latent class…

Collecting multiple longitudinal measurements and time-to-event outcomes is a common practice in clinical and epidemiological studies, often focusing on exploring associations between them. Joint modeling is the standard analytical tool for…

Dynamical downscaling is crucial for deriving high-resolution meteorological fields from coarse-scale simulations, enabling detailed analysis for critical applications such as weather forecasting and renewable energy modeling. Generative…

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Among the various methods used to age-date stars, methods based on stellar model predictions are widely used, for nearly all kind of stars in large ranges of masses, chemical compositions and evolutionary stages. The precision and accuracy…

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

The two major approaches to studying macroevolution in deep time are the fossil record and reconstructed relationships among extant taxa from molecular data. Results based on one approach sometimes conflict with those based on the other,…

Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice-sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to…

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

This paper investigates the cross-correlations across multiple climate model errors. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the spatial dependence of individual models as well as cross-covariances across different climate…

1) Micro-evolutionary predictions are complicated by ecological feedbacks like density dependence, while ecological predictions can be complicated by evolutionary change. A widely used approach in micro-evolution, quantitative genetics,…