相关论文: Bayesian Inference of Local Projections with Rough…

Applied macroeconomists often compute confidence intervals for impulse responses using local projections, i.e., direct linear regressions of future outcomes on current covariates. This paper proves that local projection inference robustly…

A local projection model is defined by a set of linear regressions that account for the associations between exogenous variables and an endogenous variable observed at different time points. While it is standard practice to separately…

Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…

We develop a Bayesian framework for the efficient estimation of impulse responses using Local Projections (LPs) with instrumental variables. It accommodates multiple shocks and instruments, accounts for autocorrelation in multi-step…

Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

We present an extension of local sensitivity analysis, also referred to as the perturbation approach for uncertainty quantification, to Bayesian inverse problems. More precisely, we show how moments of random variables with respect to the…

Inference for impulse responses estimated with local projections presents interesting challenges and opportunities. Analysts typically want to assess the precision of individual estimates, explore the dynamic evolution of the response over…

Spline basis exploration via Bayesian model selection is a widely employed strategy for determining the optimal set of basis terms in nonparametric regression. However, despite its widespread use, this approach often encounters performance…

In Bayesian analysis, the posterior follows from the data and a choice of a prior and a likelihood. One hopes that the posterior is robust to reasonable variation in the choice of prior, since this choice is made by the modeler and is often…

Local volatility is an important quantity in option pricing, portfolio hedging, and risk management. It is not directly observable from the market; hence calibrations of local volatility models are necessary using observable market data.…

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Shape restrictions such as monotonicity on functions often arise naturally in statistical modeling. We consider a Bayesian approach to the problem of estimation of a monotone regression function and testing for monotonicity. We construct a…

This paper studies the influence of perturbations of conjugate priors in Bayesian inference. A perturbed prior is defined inside a larger family, local mixture models, and the effect on posterior inference is studied. The perturbation, in…

This paper presents a comprehensive local projections (LP) framework for estimating future responses to current shocks, robust to high-dimensional controls without relying on sparsity assumptions. The approach is applicable to various…

This paper develops a class of Bayesian non- and semiparametric methods for estimating regression curves and surfaces. The main idea is to model the regression as locally linear, and then place suitable local priors on the local parameters.…

To address the common problem of high dimensionality in tensor regressions, we introduce a generalized tensor random projection method that embeds high-dimensional tensor-valued covariates into low-dimensional subspaces with minimal loss of…

Isotonic regression or monotone function estimation is a problem of estimating function values under monotonicity constraints, which appears naturally in many scientific fields. This paper proposes a new Bayesian method with global-local…

Projection predictive inference is a decision theoretic Bayesian approach that decouples model estimation from decision making. Given a reference model previously built including all variables present in the data, projection predictive…

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an…