相关论文: Estimating activity cycles with probabilistic meth…

We report our efforts to constrain the form of the low-mass star and brown dwarf mass function via Bayesian inference. Recent surveys of M, L, and T dwarfs in the local solar neighborhood are an essential component of our study.…

The evolution of differential ages of passive galaxies at different redshifts (cosmic chronometers) has been proved to be a method potentially able to constrain the Hubble parameter in a cosmology-independent way, but the systematic…

Gaussian process regression is a frequently used statistical method for flexible yet fully probabilistic non-linear regression modeling. A common obstacle is its computational complexity which scales poorly with the number of observations.…

Gaussian processes are a fundamental statistical tool used in a wide range of applications. In the spatio-temporal setting, several families of covariance functions exist to accommodate a wide variety of dependence structures arising in…

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

One of the most promising tracers of the Galactic potential in the halo region are stellar streams. However, individual stream fits can be limited by systematic biases. To study these individual stream systematics, we fit streams in Milky…

Existing stellar X-ray surveys suggest major problems in our understanding of the evolution of stellar magnetic activity in solar and late-type stars, reaching conflicting conclusions over the rate of decay of X-ray activity and the…

Quantitative understanding of human behaviors provides elementary comprehension of the complexity of many human-initiated systems. A basic assumption embedded in the previous analyses on human dynamics is that its temporal statistics are…

The variability of H$\alpha$ chromospheric activity of solar-like stars is investigated by using the time-domain data of LAMOST Medium-Resolution Spectroscopic Survey (MRS). We use $R_\mathrm{H\alpha}$ index (ratio of H$\alpha$ luminosity…

Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…

It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy's law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the…

The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant…

We describe a model of dark matter halo abundances and clustering which combines the two most widely used approaches to this problem: that based on peaks and the other based on excursion sets. Our approach can be thought of as addressing…

Dynamical processes on time-varying complex networks are key to understanding and modeling a broad variety of processes in socio-technical systems. Here we focus on empirical temporal networks of human proximity and we aim at understanding…

The application of the Wavelet analysis and Fourier analysis to the dataset of variations of radiation fluxes of solar-like stars and the Sun is examined. In case of the Sun the wavelet-analysis helped us to see a set of values of periods…

Two motions in the galactic plane have been detected and characterized, based on the determination of a common systematic component in Hipparcos catalogue proper motions. The procedure is based only on positions, proper motions and…

We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of…

This article introduces estimators of trend and seasonality for time series of point processes. We assume the point processes follow a temporal or spatial doubly-stochastic Poisson model with log-Gaussian intensity functions. The proposed…

Several solar-like stars exhibit cyclic magnetic activity similar to the Sun as found in photospheric and chromospheric emission. We want to understand the physical mechanism involved in rotational dependence of these activity cycle…

We estimate the halo mass function (HMF) by applying the excursion set approach to the non-linear cosmic density field. Thereby, we account for the non-Gaussianity of today's density distribution and constrain the HMF independent of the…