相关论文: Interpretable Vector AutoRegressions with Exogenou…

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences…

We improve upon the two-stage sparse vector autoregression (sVAR) method in Davis et al. (2016) by proposing an alternative two-stage modified sVAR method which relies on time series graphical lasso to estimate sparse inverse spectral…

We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the…

Complex systems, such as brains, markets, and societies, exhibit internal dynamics influenced by external factors. Disentangling delayed external effects from internal dynamics within these systems is often challenging. We propose using a…

We reinterpret Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models as iterative refinement models to identify which design choices drive their quality-efficiency trade-off. Instead of treating VAR only as next-scale autoregression, we formalise it as a…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance…

We reconcile the two worlds of dense and sparse modeling by exploiting the positive aspects of both. We employ a factor model and assume {the dynamic of the factors is non-pervasive while} the idiosyncratic term follows a sparse vector…

High-dimensional time series datasets are becoming increasingly common in many areas of biological and social sciences. Some important applications include gene regulatory network reconstruction using time course gene expression data, brain…

Recently, high dimensional vector auto-regressive models (VAR), have attracted a lot of interest, due to novel applications in the health, engineering and social sciences. The presence of temporal dependence poses additional challenges to…

By treating intervals as inseparable sets, this paper proposes sparse machine learning regressions for high-dimensional interval-valued time series. With LASSO or adaptive LASSO techniques, we develop a penalized minimum distance…

The classical vector autoregressive model is a fundamental tool for multivariate time series analysis. However, it involves too many parameters when the number of time series and lag order are even moderately large. This paper proposes to…

We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…

The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…

In data science, vector autoregression (VAR) models are popular in modeling multivariate time series in the environmental sciences and other applications. However, these models are computationally complex with the number of parameters…

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard…

This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…

The problem of broad practical interest in spatiotemporal data analysis, i.e., discovering interpretable dynamic patterns from spatiotemporal data, is studied in this paper. Towards this end, we develop a time-varying reduced-rank vector…

Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…