相关论文: A Bayesian spatial hierarchical model for extreme …

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…

In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in…

Hazard event sets, a collection of synthetic extreme events over a given period, are important for catastrophe modelling. This paper addresses the issue of generating event sets of extreme river flow for northern England and southern…

Recent developments in extreme value statistics have established the so-called geometric approach as a powerful modelling tool for multivariate extremes. We tailor these methods to the case of spatial modelling and examine their efficacy at…

Due to complex physical phenomena, the distribution of heavy rainfall events is difficult to model spatially. Physically based numerical models can often provide physically coherent spatial patterns, but may miss some important…

Regional flood frequency analysis is commonly applied in situations where there exists insufficient data at a location for a reliable estimation of flood quantiles. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for a regional…

Statistical models for landslide hazard enable mapping of risk factors and landslide occurrence intensity by using geomorphological covariates available at high spatial resolution. However, the spatial distribution of the triggering event…

Flexible spatial models that allow transitions between tail dependence classes have recently appeared in the literature. However, inference for these models is computationally prohibitive, even in moderate dimensions, due to the necessity…

Climate change is intensifying rainfall extremes, making high-resolution precipitation projections crucial for society to better prepare for impacts such as flooding. However, current Global Climate Models (GCMs) operate at spatial…

Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…

We propose a new statistical protocol for the estimation of precipitation using lightning data. We first identify rainy events using a scan statistics, then we estimate Rainfall Lighting Ratio (RLR) to convert lightning number into rain…

Flood quantile estimation is of great importance for many engineering studies and policy decisions. However, practitioners must often deal with small data available. Thus, the information must be used optimally. In the last decades, to…

When assessing the impact of extreme events, it is often not just a single component, but the combined behaviour of several components which is important. Statistical modelling using multivariate generalized Pareto (GP) distributions…

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Max-stable processes are increasingly widely used for modelling complex extreme events, but existing fitting methods are computationally demanding, limiting applications to a few dozen variables. $r$-Pareto processes are mathematically…