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In this article, we investigate certain asymptotic optimality properties of a very broad class of one-group continuous shrinkage priors for simultaneous estimation and testing of a sparse normal mean vector. Asymptotic optimality of Bayes…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-11-11 Prasenjit Ghosh , Arijit Chakrabarti

High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional VAR…

经济学 · 定量金融 2018-10-30 Monica Billio , Roberto Casarin , Luca Rossini

We develop a novel full-Bayesian approach for multiple correlated precision matrices, called multiple Graphical Horseshoe (mGHS). The proposed approach relies on a novel multivariate shrinkage prior based on the Horseshoe prior that borrows…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-14 Claudio Busatto , Francesco Claudio Stingo

Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-19 Pedro A. Lima , Carlos M. Carvalho , Hedibert F. Lopes , Andrew Herren

This paper addresses the weak instruments problem in linear instrumental variable models from a Bayesian perspective. The new approach has two components. First, a novel predictor-dependent shrinkage prior is developed for the many…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-08-05 P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert Lopes

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-02-27 Luis Gruber , Gregor Kastner

We provide a framework for assessing the default nature of a prior distribution using the property of regular variation, which we study for global-local shrinkage priors. In particular, we demonstrate the horseshoe priors, originally…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-05-17 Anindya Bhadra , Jyotishka Datta , Nicholas G. Polson , Brandon T. Willard

Consider the problem of high dimensional variable selection for the Gaussian linear model when the unknown error variance is also of interest. In this paper, we show that the use of conjugate shrinkage priors for Bayesian variable selection…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Gemma E. Moran , Veronika Rockova , Edward I. George

Robust Bayesian methods for high-dimensional regression problems under diverse sparse regimes are studied. Traditional shrinkage priors are primarily designed to detect a handful of signals from tens of thousands of predictors in the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-25 Se Yoon Lee , Peng Zhao , Debdeep Pati , Bani K. Mallick

We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-11-22 Sebastian Ankargren , Måns Unosson , Yukai Yang

We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-03-12 Gregor Kastner , Florian Huber

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-30 Paloma W. Uribe , Hedibert F. Lopes

Variable selection has received widespread attention over the last decade as we routinely encounter high-throughput datasets in complex biological and environment research. Most Bayesian variable selection methods are restricted to mixture…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-24 Hanning Li , Debdeep Pati

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-21 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Aaron M. Bornstein , Michele Guindani , Marina Vannucci

We consider a high-dimensional sparse normal means model where the goal is to estimate the mean vector assuming the proportion of non-zero means is unknown. We model the mean vector by a one-group global-local shrinkage prior belonging to a…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-09-19 Sayantan Paul , Arijit Chakrabarti

In this paper, we use augmented the hierarchical latent variable model to model multi-period time series, where the dynamics of time series are governed by factors or trends in multiple periods. Previous methods based on stacked recurrent…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2018-10-25 Daniel Hsu

During the past decade, shrinkage priors have received much attention in Bayesian analysis of high-dimensional data. This paper establishes the posterior consistency for high-dimensional linear regression with a class of shrinkage priors,…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-10-11 Qifan Song , Faming Liang

We investigate the credible sets and marginal credible intervals resulting from the horseshoe prior in the sparse multivariate normal means model. We do so in an adaptive setting without assuming knowledge of the sparsity level (number of…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-02-14 Stéphanie van der Pas , Botond Szabó , Aad van der Vaart

The Jacobi prior offers an alternative Bayesian framework, designed to achieve superior computational efficiency without compromising predictive performance. Compared to widely used methods such as Lasso, Ridge, Elastic Net, uniLasso, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Sourish Das , Shouvik Sardar

VARs are often estimated with Bayesian techniques to cope with model dimensionality. The posterior means define a class of shrinkage estimators, indexed by hyperparameters that determine the relative weight on maximum likelihood estimates…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-02-07 Oriol González-Casasús , Frank Schorfheide