相关论文: Dynamic Bayesian Influenza Forecasting in the Unit…

Influenza forecasting in the United States (US) is complex and challenging for reasons including substantial spatial and temporal variability, nested geographic scales of forecast interest, and heterogeneous surveillance participation. Here…

The annual influenza outbreak leads to significant public health and economic burdens making it desirable to have prompt and accurate probabilistic forecasts of the disease spread. The United States Centers for Disease Control and…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

Influenza is an infectious disease with the potential to become a pandemic, and hence, forecasting its prevalence is an important undertaking for planning an effective response. Research has found that web search activity can be used to…

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…

The accurate forecasting of infectious epidemic diseases such as influenza is a crucial task undertaken by medical institutions. Although numerous flu forecasting methods and models based mainly on historical flu activity data and online…

Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture…

Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…

Over the last ten years, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized an annual influenza forecasting challenge with the motivation that accurate probabilistic forecasts could improve situational awareness and yield…

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important…

The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but…

Accurate real-time monitoring systems of influenza outbreaks help public health officials make informed decisions that may help save lives. We show that information extracted from cloud-based electronic health records databases, in…

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…

The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially…

Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…

Infectious diseases pose significant human and economic burdens. Accurately forecasting disease incidence can enable public health agencies to respond effectively to existing or emerging diseases. Despite progress in the field, developing…

Seasonal influenza infects between 10 and 50 million people in the United States every year, overburdening hospitals during weeks of peak incidence. Named by the CDC as an important tool to fight the damaging effects of these epidemics,…

Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…

Graph-structured data and their related algorithms have attracted significant attention in many fields, such as influenza prediction in public health. However, the variable influenza seasonality, occasional pandemics, and domain knowledge…