相关论文: Understanding the detectability of potential chang…

Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon's rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence…

Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…

Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…

Planners who wish to manage coastal flood risk with long-lived infrastructure (e.g., levees, floodwalls) under a constrained computational budget face a tradeoff. Simulating a large number of future time periods or scenarios with different…

The problem of detecting the presence of a signal that can lead to a disaster is studied. A decision-maker collects data sequentially over time. At some point in time, called the change point, the distribution of data changes. This change…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…

In environmental sciences, it is often of interest to assess whether the dependence between extreme measurements has changed during the observation period. The aim of this work is to propose a statistical test that is particularly sensitive…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…

Prior literature has argued that flood insurance maps may not capture the extent of flood risk. This paper performs a granular assessment of coastal flood risk in the mortgage market by using physical simulations of hurricane storm surge…

Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and…

This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

The electric distribution system is a cornerstone of modern life, playing a critical role in the daily activities and well-being of individuals. As the world transitions toward a decarbonized future, where even mobility relies on…

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods are…

Flood quantile estimation is of great importance for many engineering studies and policy decisions. However, practitioners must often deal with small data available. Thus, the information must be used optimally. In the last decades, to…

The quickest change detection problem is considered in the context of monitoring large-scale independent normal distributed data streams with possible changes in some of the means. It is assumed that for each individual local data stream,…

Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past…