相关论文: Construction and Visualization of Optimal Confiden…

We study an optimization-based approach to construct statistically accurate confidence intervals for simulation performance measures under nonparametric input uncertainty. This approach computes confidence bounds from simulation runs driven…

An important problem in statistics is the construction of confidence regions for unknown parameters. In most cases, asymptotic distribution theory is used to construct confidence regions, so any coverage probability claims only hold…

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

In power system operation, characterizing the stochastic nature of wind power is an important albeit challenging issue. It is well known that distributions of wind power forecast errors often exhibit significant variability with respect to…

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…

Time series forecasting is essential for agents to make decisions. Traditional approaches rely on statistical methods to forecast given past numeric values. In practice, end-users often rely on visualizations such as charts and plots to…

We present a general approach to visualizing uncertainty in static 2-D statistical graphics. If we treat a visualization as a function of its underlying quantities, uncertainty in those quantities induces a distribution over images. We show…

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

We discuss recently developed methods that quantify the stability and generalizability of statistical findings under distributional changes. In many practical problems, the data is not drawn i.i.d. from the target population. For example,…

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations…

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…

Visualizations are frequently used as a means to understand trends and gather insights from datasets, but often take a long time to generate. In this paper, we focus on the problem of rapidly generating approximate visualizations while…

We propose a robust optimization approach for constructing confidence bands for stochastic processes using a finite number of simulated sample paths. Our approach can be used to quantify uncertainty in realizations of stochastic processes…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…