相关论文: Testing Forecast Accuracy of Expectiles and Quanti…

Loss functions are widely used to compare several competing forecasts. However, forecast comparisons are often based on mismeasured proxy variables for the true target. We introduce the concept of exact robustness to measurement error for…

We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…

Comparative evaluation of forecasts of statistical functionals relies on comparing averaged losses of competing forecasts after the realization of the quantity $Y$, on which the functional is based, has been observed. Motivated by…

In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing…

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a…

Quantile forecasts made across multiple horizons have become an important output of many financial institutions, central banks and international organisations. This paper proposes misspecification tests for such quantile forecasts that…

We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on a strictly consistent loss function for the…

The relative performance of competing point forecasts is usually measured in terms of loss or scoring functions. It is widely accepted that these scoring function should be strictly consistent in the sense that the expected score is…

Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little…

In the framework of semiparametric distribution regression, we consider the problem of comparing the conditional distribution functions corresponding to two samples. In contrast to testing for exact equality, we are interested in the (null)…

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…

Scholars frequently use covariate balance tests to test the validity of natural experiments and related designs. Unfortunately, when measured covariates are unrelated to potential outcomes, balance is uninformative about key identification…

Accurately forecasting the probability distribution of phenomena of interest is a classic and ever more widespread goal in statistics and decision theory. In comparison to point forecasts, probabilistic forecasts aim to provide a more…

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES currently receives much attention through its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk…

This paper focuses on the problem of testing the null hypothesis that the regression functions of several populations are equal under a general nonparametric homoscedastic regression model. It is well known that linear kernel regression…

We investigate the performance and sampling variability of estimated forecast combinations, with particular attention given to the combination of forecast distributions. Unknown parameters in the forecast combination are optimized according…

The approach for testing equal predictive accuracy for pairs of forecasting models proposed by Giacomini and White (2006) assumes that the parameters of the underlying forecasting models are estimated using a rolling window of fixed width…

In the present paper we investigate the predictive risk of possibly misspecified quantile regression functions. The in-sample risk is well-known to be an overly optimistic estimate of the predictive risk and we provide two relatively simple…

Quantiles and expected shortfalls are commonly used risk measures in financial risk management. The two measurements are correlated while have distinguished features. In this project, our primary goal is to develop stable and practical…